Here's an uncomfortable question for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) fans: What happens when the product you're selling requires more than hype and a charismatic CEO?
Gary Black, managing director of Future Fund LLC, thinks he knows the answer, and it's not pretty for the electric vehicle maker. In a pointed post on X over the weekend, the investor laid out why Tesla might get crushed in the robotaxi wars despite CEO Elon Musk's bold promises about achieving driverless operations by year's end.
The Marketing Gap Nobody Wants to Talk About
Black's critique comes as bullish analysts wave away Tesla's troubling delivery numbers. The company's Q4 deliveries dropped 16% year-over-year, but supporters argue Tesla isn't just a car company anymore. Fair enough. The future, according to believers, is all about unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots.
But here's the problem, Black argues: selling cutting-edge autonomous technology and robots to mainstream consumers requires something Tesla notoriously lacks: marketing muscle. And the competition isn't messing around. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Baidu Inc. (BIDU) are all gunning for the same robotaxi market, and they've got marketing budgets that would make your eyes water.
"Clearly $TSLA needs broad marketing and comms skills to differentiate their products in what is already a crowded space for autonomous ride hailing," Black wrote. It's a stark observation, especially considering Tesla's current strategy basically amounts to letting Musk tweet about stuff and hoping it goes viral.
Tesla's approach to marketing is, to put it charitably, unconventional. The company relies heavily on Musk's enormous social media presence and cultural cachet to generate buzz. There's no traditional advertising, no splashy campaigns, just the CEO's personality and what Black describes as "word-of-mouth advertising from an army of unknown cheerleaders on X and YouTube."
That might work for selling electric cars to early adopters who follow tech news religiously. But autonomous vehicles and household robots? Those products need to reach regular people who don't spend their evenings watching Tesla fan channels.
Robots and Robotaxis: A Crowded Future
Black's concerns extend beyond robotaxis. He points out that robotics will become equally crowded once manufacturers crack the autonomy puzzle. We're talking about robots that could "make consumers breakfast, tend to their lawns, go to the grocery store, feed their pets," he noted. That's a mass-market product if there ever was one, and mass markets require mass marketing.
The investor's criticism is particularly pointed because it targets Tesla's greatest strength, its passionate fan base, and reframes it as a potential weakness. Relying on enthusiastic supporters to spread the word is "less than ideal if Tesla wants to sell products to the masses," Black argued.
Where Tesla Stands Now
Meanwhile, Tesla continues pushing forward with its autonomous ambitions. The company is actively testing its self-driving technology and robotaxi service. Musk recently claimed he was driven around Austin in an autonomous Model Y robotaxi, and prototype Cybercabs have been spotted around the city.
Tesla plans to ramp up Cybercab production this year, something Musk confirmed in a recent thread on X. So the technology development is moving ahead, even if the marketing strategy remains stuck in neutral.
On a separate note, Musk recently donated more than 210,000 Tesla shares worth approximately $100 million, according to an SEC filing. The billionaire also claimed the taxes he paid were so substantial they "broke the IRS system," because of course he did.
Price Action: TSLA shares climbed 0.78% to $441.49 in after-hours trading on Friday, recovering slightly after falling 2.59% to close at $438.07 during regular market hours.