Welcome to the first full trading week of 2026, where U.S. stock futures decided to start things off on an upbeat note. After Friday's mixed close, the major benchmark indices were pointing higher Monday morning, with tech stocks leading the way.

But let's talk about what happened over the weekend, because it's not every day you wake up to news that the U.S. just toppled a foreign regime. The U.S. struck Venezuela and removed Nicolás Maduro from power. On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced that American oil companies are preparing to pour billions into Venezuela's oil sector, with the stated goal of rebuilding the country's crumbling oil infrastructure and getting revenue flowing again.

You might expect crude oil to have a strong reaction to news like this, but the market was surprisingly muted. WTI's February futures were swinging around early Monday, ultimately trading just 0.05% lower at $57.29 per barrel. Oil markets have apparently seen enough geopolitical drama to know better than to overreact immediately.

Meanwhile, bond markets were doing their usual thing. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.17%, while the two-year was at 3.46%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders pricing in an 82.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates exactly where they are when they meet in January. No surprises expected there.

Here's how the futures looked Monday morning:

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, were both moving higher in premarket trading. The SPY climbed 0.22% to $684.68, while the QQQ advanced 0.51% to $616.26.

Individual Stocks Making Moves

Vertiv Holdings Catches an Upgrade

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) shares jumped 1.62% in premarket trading Monday after Barclays upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "equal weight," according to an investing.com report. Adding to the excitement, prediction market Polymarket was showing 75% odds that the Ohio-based AI infrastructure provider will join the S&P 500 index.

That's the kind of thing that gets traders interested. The company maintains a stronger price trend across short, medium, and long timeframes with a solid quality ranking.

Nukkleus Closes Defense Acquisition

Nukkleus Inc. (NUKK) rose 3.79% after announcing it closed its $14 million acquisition of Tiltan Software Engineering, an Israeli defense software company whose AI-driven technologies are embedded in defense programs. It's a small deal in absolute terms, but it's the kind of strategic move that can matter for smaller companies trying to carve out a niche in the defense tech space.

The stock maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, so this acquisition news provided a welcome boost.

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Issues Guidance

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IRWD) advanced 2.81% after the company issued fiscal 2026 guidance. Ironwood expects 2026 Linzess U.S. net sales between $1.125 billion and $1.175 billion, with total revenue expected to land between $450 million and $475 million. The company is projecting adjusted EBITDA of over $300 million for 2026.

Those are the kinds of specific numbers that give investors something concrete to work with, and the market liked what it saw. The stock maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate value ranking.

Brand Engagement Network Signs Major Deal

Brand Engagement Network Inc. (BNAI) shares climbed 8.22% after recently announcing it entered into a Vendor Services Project Agreement with a global advertising and communications agency. The company didn't name the agency, but the market didn't seem to care about the lack of specifics.

The stock maintains a weaker price trend over the long term but shows stronger trends in the medium and short terms, suggesting some recent momentum.

GH Research Soars on FDA Update

GH Research PLC (GHRS) absolutely soared, jumping 19.05% after the company announced it would provide an update on its FDA IND status and Phase 3 program for GH001 in treatment-resistant depression. That's a massive one-day move, and it speaks to how much investors value clarity on regulatory pathways for biotech companies.

The stock maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long term, and Monday's news only reinforced that momentum.

What Happened Friday

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's remember where we came from. On Friday, the U.S. market saw broad gains, with most sectors finishing higher. Energy, Industrials, Materials, Utilities, Health Care, Financials, Real Estate, and Information Technology all closed in the green. Consumer Staples, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary were the only sectors that declined.

The Russell 2000's 1.06% gain was particularly notable, suggesting some risk-on appetite among traders heading into the weekend.

JPMorgan's 2026 Market Outlook

Speaking of what's ahead, JPMorgan released its "Eye on the Market 2026 Outlook," and it's worth paying attention to what one of Wall Street's biggest banks is thinking.

The basic message: expect continued strength in U.S. equity markets and economic stability, but don't expect it to be smooth sailing. JPMorgan anticipates a market trajectory similar to 2025, which means they're looking for a potential "10%-15% correction at some point due to profit-taking and a growth scare," but they ultimately expect equity markets to finish the year "higher than where they began."

That's classic Wall Street forecasting—predicting both a correction and higher prices by year-end. But the logic makes sense. Markets rarely go straight up, even in good years.

The report highlights something important about market concentration. Since ChatGPT launched in 2022, "65%-75% of S&P 500 returns, profits, and capital spending have been derived from 42 companies linked to generative AI." That's an incredible concentration of market performance in a relatively small group of companies, and it's both a strength and a vulnerability.

On the economic side, the numbers are equally striking. Tech sector capital spending contributed "40%-45% of U.S. GDP growth over the last three quarters" of 2025. That's not just a stock market story—that's a real economy story about where investment dollars are flowing.

JPMorgan expects consumer spending to "hold up in 2026," helped along by tax adjustments. Inflation risks from tariffs and labor shortages remain on the radar, but they're not expecting a collapse. Still, the report includes a note of caution: "When markets are highly concentrated and near all-time highs, the right question to ask is what could go wrong."

That's the kind of question investors should keep in mind even as they're riding a bull market.

This Week's Economic Calendar

If you're wondering what data points might actually move markets this week, here's what's on tap:

Monday: December's ISM manufacturing index data drops at 10:00 a.m. ET, along with auto sales data. Manufacturing data has been weak lately, so any improvement could be meaningful.

Tuesday: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 8:00 a.m., and December's S&P final U.S. services PMI comes out at 9:45 a.m. ET. Services have been the stronger part of the economy, so this will get attention.

Wednesday: This is a busy day. December's ADP employment report drops at 8:30 a.m., followed by December's ISM services index data, November's job openings data, and October's U.S. factory orders data at 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Thursday: Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, October's U.S. trade deficit data, and third quarter U.S. productivity data all come out by 3:00 p.m. November's U.S. consumer credit data also gets released at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Friday: The big one. December's U.S. employment report comes out at 8:30 a.m., along with the unemployment rate, hourly wages data, October's housing starts, and January's University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 9:45 a.m. Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks again at 1:35 p.m. ET.

That Friday jobs report is always the main event, and it'll set the tone for how markets think about the Fed's next moves.

Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets

Beyond equities, here's what was happening across other asset classes:

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session, down 0.05% to hover around $57.29 per barrel. Despite the Venezuela news, oil prices weren't doing much.

Gold spot price rose 2.33% to trade around $4,431.49 per ounce. That's a significant move for gold, though still below its recent record high of $4,550.11 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.25% higher at the 98.6690 level.

Bitcoin was trading 1.3% higher at $92,517.31 per coin. The cryptocurrency has been bouncing around in this range for a while now, without any clear directional conviction.

Asian markets closed higher on Friday, with the exception of India's Nifty 50 index. China's CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's ASX 200 indices all rose. European markets were trading higher in early Monday trade as well, suggesting a generally positive global mood.

So as we kick off the first full trading week of the year, the overall picture is cautiously optimistic. Futures are pointing higher, individual stocks are making moves on company-specific news, and the economic calendar is packed with data that will give us a clearer picture of where the economy stands. Just don't forget JPMorgan's advice about asking what could go wrong when markets are near all-time highs. That question tends to become relevant at the most inconvenient times.