Here's a weird theory making the rounds: What if the current situation in Venezuela isn't exactly spontaneous? Investigative journalist Dave Troy is connecting dots between President Nicolas Maduro's capture and a somewhat bizarre foreign policy idea floated during the first Trump administration.

The 2019 Venezuela-Ukraine Swap Theory

In a Saturday post on X, Troy pointed back to testimony from Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served as an advisor in the Trump administration. Back in 2019, Hill described something curious Russia was proposing.

"And the Russians at this particular juncture were signaling very strongly that they wanted to somehow make some very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine," Hill testified, also referencing the Monroe Doctrine.

Troy's argument? That policy might still be in play.

"If this was operational intel then, you can damn well bet this is a part of Kremlin-Trump policy now," Troy wrote in a series of posts on X.

He continued: "The idea this is some new sui generis Trump adventurism is unsupported by evidence. If this is the basis of this action...then this is transactional Trump deal-making, first and foremost. No real risk taken, he gets what he wants, Vlad gets what he wants, and his image is burnished. Boom: peacemaker."

Troy also noted that comments from Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a Russian right-wing politician, support Hill's testimony.

Russia Wants Maduro Back, Ackman Sees Oil Strategy

Russia's reaction has been swift. The country's Foreign Ministry on Saturday called on the U.S. to release Maduro and his wife, stating it "strongly calls on the U.S. leadership to reconsider its position and free the legitimately elected president of a sovereign state and his wife." The ministry emphasized that diplomatic channels should handle the escalating confrontation.

Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Ackman is looking at this through an economic lens. He argues removing Maduro would drive oil prices down, which benefits the U.S. while hurting Russia's economy. Lower oil prices weaken Moscow financially, potentially leading to an earlier, more favorable resolution to the Ukraine war. Ackman also suggests the move could increase security concerns for President Vladimir Putin.

Still, Russian central bank deputy chairman Sergey Aleksashenko believes Russia has enough financial resources to continue the Ukraine war for another two to three years, despite economic pressures.