Sometimes the pizza just doesn't rise the way you hoped. Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is facing a reality check from TD Cowen, where analyst Andrew Charles decided it's time to pump the brakes on his bullish outlook.

Charles downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and cut his price target from $500 to $460. The core issue? He doesn't think the company can reach 3% U.S. same-store sales growth in 2026, and he's got five specific reasons why.

Five Slices of Concern

First up, Domino's likely won't be able to "overpower category softness" even with flashy moves like Parmesan Stuffed Crust and expansion into third-party delivery. Why? Customers have become overly price sensitive in today's environment.

Speaking of third-party delivery, Charles expects sales from aggregator platforms like DoorDash Inc (DASH) and Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) to slow down in 2026. That's problem number two.

Third, innovative menu launches aren't expected to provide much upside in 2025. Fourth, while a competitor's closure or acquisition could help, that takes time to materialize.

The fifth concern ties everything together: Domino's "lacks pricing power amid a struggling low-income consumer environment, while the price promotional pizza delivery category also challenges pricing power," Charles wrote. Translation: it's hard to raise prices when your customers are strapped for cash and everyone's constantly running promotions.

Shares of Domino's Pizza dropped 3.1% to $412.09 following the downgrade on Monday.