Michael Burry, the investor who made his name predicting the 2008 housing collapse in "The Big Short," is back with another contrarian bet. This time, it's all about Venezuelan oil and the refineries that were literally designed to process it.

Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and subsequent statements from President Donald Trump encouraging American industrial participation in Venezuela's oil sector, Burry has publicly reaffirmed a position he's been quietly holding since 2020: Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), according to CNBC.

The Heavy Crude Puzzle

Here's the technical backstory that makes this interesting. Gulf Coast refineries weren't built to handle just any oil. They were specifically engineered to process South American "heavy" crude, which is dense, sulfurous, and chemically distinct from lighter grades. Think of it like building a factory to process a specific ingredient, then suddenly losing access to that ingredient for decades.

Without Venezuelan supply, these plants have been running on suboptimal feedstock, operating below their designed efficiency. That's been the status quo for years, but Burry sees that changing.

"Realize that many Gulf Coast refineries were purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude. So they have been running with suboptimal feedstock for years. This will, in time, produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel ... I have owned Valero since 2020, and I am more resolved to holding it even longer after this weekend," Burry said, per CNBC.

The Broader Infrastructure Play

Burry isn't just betting on refiners. He's positioned in oilfield services too, specifically mentioning that he owns Halliburton Co. (HAL) and is considering adding more shares or long-term options.

His reasoning? Venezuela's petroleum infrastructure is decades old and badly degraded. Someone needs to rebuild those pipelines and refineries, and that work will likely flow to American contractors. Chevron Corp. (CVX) is already operating there, which validates the opportunity.

"Venezuelan pipelines and refineries are old and in disrepair. This work will go to U.S. contractors. Chevron is already there," Burry noted.

There's also a legal angle. Companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) have been tangled in litigation for decades over assets seized when Venezuela nationalized its oil sector. If the U.S. does play a role in managing Venezuelan resources, those long-dormant legal claims might finally see resolution.

"Exxon and others have been litigating claims for decades and may see some justice relatively soon, if the US literally begins to run Venezuela as some have suggested. I own Halliburton, and may buy more shares or LEAPs," he added.

Who Benefits From This Thesis

Based on Burry's analysis, here are the companies positioned to benefit if Venezuela's oil sector reopens to American participation:

The Contrarian Timeline

What's striking about this position is the patience it required. Burry bought Valero in 2020, right as pandemic volatility was crushing energy stocks. He held through years of geopolitical uncertainty, waiting for a shift that would unlock the fundamental value he saw in these complex refining assets.

His bet wasn't on short-term oil price movements. It was on a structural change in supply chains that would allow these refineries to finally operate at their designed capacity, processing the heavy sour crude they were built to handle. As the U.S. potentially moves to support or oversee Venezuelan resource management, that "suboptimal" era for Gulf Coast refineries may finally be ending.

It's classic Burry: identify a mispricing created by geopolitical disruption, take a position before anyone else sees it, and wait for reality to catch up to fundamentals. Whether this trade works out as well as his housing bet remains to be seen, but the thesis is certainly intriguing.