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Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin Could Break Its Four-Year Cycle If It Reaches $200,000 This Year

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Fundstrat's Tom Lee says Bitcoin could deviate from its traditional four-year boom-bust pattern if it hits $200,000 to $250,000 in 2025, citing institutional adoption and government support as key tailwinds. But not everyone agrees with his analysis.

Wall Street analyst Tom Lee is making waves again with his latest take on Bitcoin (BTC). Speaking to CNBC on Monday, the Fundstrat co-founder suggested that Bitcoin might actually break free from its well-known four-year cycle if it manages to climb between $200,000 and $250,000 this year.

Breaking the Pattern?

Here's the thing about Bitcoin's four-year cycle: it's been remarkably consistent. The pattern typically involves a rally following each halving event, followed by a cooldown period. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin's price should decline in 2026. But Lee thinks a sharp rally instead would shatter that historical rhythm entirely.

"I think that there are tailwinds that are building," Lee explained, highlighting the leverage reset that occurred during the October 2025 crash. That washout, in his view, cleared the decks for a healthier market structure going forward.

Lee also pointed to continued institutional adoption and U.S. government support as factors that could propel Bitcoin past its typical cyclical behavior. These aren't the same conditions that existed in previous cycles, which might explain why this time could genuinely be different.

The Gold Connection

Lee's analysis doesn't stop with cycle theory. He's also connecting Bitcoin's trajectory to precious metals, particularly gold and silver. According to Lee, Bitcoin will eventually "benefit" from the gold trade that's been heating up.

"It does look like gold rallies typically lead Bitcoin rallies. So I think it's been healthy for gold to rally," he argued.

Not everyone's convinced by this narrative, though. Economist and perpetual gold advocate Peter Schiff pushed back hard on Lee's correlation theory. Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin's past rallies actually happened when gold moved sideways. More recently, he noted, gold has surged while Bitcoin tumbled, which in his view destroys what he called a "fake" narrative about their relationship.

Mixed Signals from Fundstrat

Lee's optimistic outlook comes against a backdrop of his previous predictions and some internal contradictions at Fundstrat. Earlier in 2026, he predicted a 10% to 15% crypto pullback due to policy risks from the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Last year, there was notable confusion around contradictory signals being sent by Fundstrat's analysts on Bitcoin. Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, indicated a base case where Bitcoin might retrace to the $60,000–$65,000 range in early 2026. Meanwhile, Lee's comments suggested the cryptocurrency could reach new all-time highs. It's a wide range of possibilities, to put it mildly.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?

The debate over Bitcoin's four-year cycle isn't just happening at Fundstrat. Analysts that MarketDash has spoken with are divided on whether the traditional pattern is still relevant. Some argue the cycle is now "breaking down" as Bitcoin matures and attracts different types of investors. Others maintain it will remain "relevant" in 2026, pointing to the fundamental supply dynamics that drive the pattern.

Lee's position is clear: if Bitcoin can push through to that $200,000 to $250,000 range, all bets are off regarding the historical pattern. The combination of institutional money, government backing, and a cleaned-up leverage situation could create conditions we simply haven't seen before in Bitcoin's relatively short history.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $93,715.33, up 0.81% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Back to Stock Market News

Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin Could Break Its Four-Year Cycle If It Reaches $200,000 This Year

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Fundstrat's Tom Lee says Bitcoin could deviate from its traditional four-year boom-bust pattern if it hits $200,000 to $250,000 in 2025, citing institutional adoption and government support as key tailwinds. But not everyone agrees with his analysis.

Wall Street analyst Tom Lee is making waves again with his latest take on Bitcoin (BTC). Speaking to CNBC on Monday, the Fundstrat co-founder suggested that Bitcoin might actually break free from its well-known four-year cycle if it manages to climb between $200,000 and $250,000 this year.

Breaking the Pattern?

Here's the thing about Bitcoin's four-year cycle: it's been remarkably consistent. The pattern typically involves a rally following each halving event, followed by a cooldown period. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin's price should decline in 2026. But Lee thinks a sharp rally instead would shatter that historical rhythm entirely.

"I think that there are tailwinds that are building," Lee explained, highlighting the leverage reset that occurred during the October 2025 crash. That washout, in his view, cleared the decks for a healthier market structure going forward.

Lee also pointed to continued institutional adoption and U.S. government support as factors that could propel Bitcoin past its typical cyclical behavior. These aren't the same conditions that existed in previous cycles, which might explain why this time could genuinely be different.

The Gold Connection

Lee's analysis doesn't stop with cycle theory. He's also connecting Bitcoin's trajectory to precious metals, particularly gold and silver. According to Lee, Bitcoin will eventually "benefit" from the gold trade that's been heating up.

"It does look like gold rallies typically lead Bitcoin rallies. So I think it's been healthy for gold to rally," he argued.

Not everyone's convinced by this narrative, though. Economist and perpetual gold advocate Peter Schiff pushed back hard on Lee's correlation theory. Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin's past rallies actually happened when gold moved sideways. More recently, he noted, gold has surged while Bitcoin tumbled, which in his view destroys what he called a "fake" narrative about their relationship.

Mixed Signals from Fundstrat

Lee's optimistic outlook comes against a backdrop of his previous predictions and some internal contradictions at Fundstrat. Earlier in 2026, he predicted a 10% to 15% crypto pullback due to policy risks from the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Last year, there was notable confusion around contradictory signals being sent by Fundstrat's analysts on Bitcoin. Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, indicated a base case where Bitcoin might retrace to the $60,000–$65,000 range in early 2026. Meanwhile, Lee's comments suggested the cryptocurrency could reach new all-time highs. It's a wide range of possibilities, to put it mildly.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?

The debate over Bitcoin's four-year cycle isn't just happening at Fundstrat. Analysts that MarketDash has spoken with are divided on whether the traditional pattern is still relevant. Some argue the cycle is now "breaking down" as Bitcoin matures and attracts different types of investors. Others maintain it will remain "relevant" in 2026, pointing to the fundamental supply dynamics that drive the pattern.

Lee's position is clear: if Bitcoin can push through to that $200,000 to $250,000 range, all bets are off regarding the historical pattern. The combination of institutional money, government backing, and a cleaned-up leverage situation could create conditions we simply haven't seen before in Bitcoin's relatively short history.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $93,715.33, up 0.81% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

    Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin Could Break Its Four-Year Cycle If It Reaches $200,000 This Year - MarketDash News