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Google's AI Problem: Why Success Could Kill Its Cash Cow While Microsoft Plays It Safe

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Market strategists see a fundamental tension in Google's AI push: every direct answer it provides potentially eliminates a revenue-generating click. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Azure expansion offers AI upside without the existential risk to its core business model.

Here's the weird paradox at the heart of Google's (GOOG) AI strategy: to remain competitive, the company essentially needs to kneecap its own wildly profitable business. That's the uncomfortable reality facing Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the AI arms race accelerates toward 2026, and market analysts are increasingly worried about what it means for the search giant's bottom line.

The Click Problem

Speaking with Schwab Network, Cory Johnson, Chief Market Strategist at Epistrophy Capital Research, laid out Google's existential challenge pretty bluntly. For decades, Google has printed money by serving up search results—links that users click to find information. Those clicks drive ad impressions, and those ad impressions fund everything. But generative AI flips the script entirely.

"It cannibalizes their business," Johnson explained. When Google presents AI-generated results, it's providing direct answers instead of links. Users get what they need right there on the search page, which means they're not clicking through to other sites. No clicks means fewer opportunities to serve ads. Johnson cited data showing that users are dramatically less likely to navigate away when an AI answer satisfies their query compared to traditional search results.

This isn't a hypothetical future problem—it's happening now as Google integrates more AI capabilities into search. The company is essentially caught between two bad options: embrace AI and watch it eat into ad revenue, or hold back and risk losing relevance as competitors push ahead.

Microsoft's Comfortable Position

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) doesn't have this problem, which is why John Freeman, Co-Founder of Ravenswood Partners, is favoring the Redmond giant heading into 2025 and 2026. Microsoft gets plenty of AI upside through Azure—its cloud platform just posted 35% growth—without facing the same self-disruption risk that's keeping Google executives up at night.

Freeman's argument is straightforward: Microsoft's core profit engines like Windows and Microsoft 365 aren't really threatened by AI developments in the near term. The company can layer AI capabilities on top of existing products, charge more for them, and watch Azure revenue climb as customers need more compute power. It's additive rather than cannibalistic, which makes Microsoft look like the safer bet from a risk-adjusted perspective.

Where The Real Money's Being Spent

Both analysts agree on one thing: regardless of who wins the software battle, the immediate opportunity is in the massive infrastructure buildout that AI demands. Someone has to build all those data centers, and they need to be packed with very specific hardware.

Johnson focused on the broad spending wave across data centers, networking equipment, and power infrastructure. Freeman got more specific, highlighting what he calls the "memory trade." He recommended Micron Technology Inc. (MU) and Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) as prime beneficiaries of the explosion in demand for DRAM memory. AI models are getting absolutely massive, and they need tons of high-bandwidth memory to function. That's not changing anytime soon.

The Market Doesn't Seem Worried Yet

Despite all this hand-wringing about cannibalization, Alphabet's (GOOGL) Class A shares have soared 76% over the past six months and 65% over the past year. On Monday, the stock climbed 0.44% to $316.54 per share. Market data shows that GOOGL maintains strong price momentum across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, though value metrics look less attractive at current levels.

So maybe investors aren't buying the doom-and-gloom scenario, or maybe they're betting Google figures out how to monetize AI answers before the revenue hit becomes material. Either way, the tension between staying relevant and protecting the golden goose is going to be one of the defining storylines in tech over the next couple of years. Microsoft, meanwhile, gets to sit back and sell cloud services to everyone building AI products. Not a bad spot to be in.

Back to Stock Market News

Google's AI Problem: Why Success Could Kill Its Cash Cow While Microsoft Plays It Safe

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Market strategists see a fundamental tension in Google's AI push: every direct answer it provides potentially eliminates a revenue-generating click. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Azure expansion offers AI upside without the existential risk to its core business model.

Here's the weird paradox at the heart of Google's (GOOG) AI strategy: to remain competitive, the company essentially needs to kneecap its own wildly profitable business. That's the uncomfortable reality facing Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the AI arms race accelerates toward 2026, and market analysts are increasingly worried about what it means for the search giant's bottom line.

The Click Problem

Speaking with Schwab Network, Cory Johnson, Chief Market Strategist at Epistrophy Capital Research, laid out Google's existential challenge pretty bluntly. For decades, Google has printed money by serving up search results—links that users click to find information. Those clicks drive ad impressions, and those ad impressions fund everything. But generative AI flips the script entirely.

"It cannibalizes their business," Johnson explained. When Google presents AI-generated results, it's providing direct answers instead of links. Users get what they need right there on the search page, which means they're not clicking through to other sites. No clicks means fewer opportunities to serve ads. Johnson cited data showing that users are dramatically less likely to navigate away when an AI answer satisfies their query compared to traditional search results.

This isn't a hypothetical future problem—it's happening now as Google integrates more AI capabilities into search. The company is essentially caught between two bad options: embrace AI and watch it eat into ad revenue, or hold back and risk losing relevance as competitors push ahead.

Microsoft's Comfortable Position

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) doesn't have this problem, which is why John Freeman, Co-Founder of Ravenswood Partners, is favoring the Redmond giant heading into 2025 and 2026. Microsoft gets plenty of AI upside through Azure—its cloud platform just posted 35% growth—without facing the same self-disruption risk that's keeping Google executives up at night.

Freeman's argument is straightforward: Microsoft's core profit engines like Windows and Microsoft 365 aren't really threatened by AI developments in the near term. The company can layer AI capabilities on top of existing products, charge more for them, and watch Azure revenue climb as customers need more compute power. It's additive rather than cannibalistic, which makes Microsoft look like the safer bet from a risk-adjusted perspective.

Where The Real Money's Being Spent

Both analysts agree on one thing: regardless of who wins the software battle, the immediate opportunity is in the massive infrastructure buildout that AI demands. Someone has to build all those data centers, and they need to be packed with very specific hardware.

Johnson focused on the broad spending wave across data centers, networking equipment, and power infrastructure. Freeman got more specific, highlighting what he calls the "memory trade." He recommended Micron Technology Inc. (MU) and Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) as prime beneficiaries of the explosion in demand for DRAM memory. AI models are getting absolutely massive, and they need tons of high-bandwidth memory to function. That's not changing anytime soon.

The Market Doesn't Seem Worried Yet

Despite all this hand-wringing about cannibalization, Alphabet's (GOOGL) Class A shares have soared 76% over the past six months and 65% over the past year. On Monday, the stock climbed 0.44% to $316.54 per share. Market data shows that GOOGL maintains strong price momentum across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, though value metrics look less attractive at current levels.

So maybe investors aren't buying the doom-and-gloom scenario, or maybe they're betting Google figures out how to monetize AI answers before the revenue hit becomes material. Either way, the tension between staying relevant and protecting the golden goose is going to be one of the defining storylines in tech over the next couple of years. Microsoft, meanwhile, gets to sit back and sell cloud services to everyone building AI products. Not a bad spot to be in.

    Google's AI Problem: Why Success Could Kill Its Cash Cow While Microsoft Plays It Safe - MarketDash News