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Why Jim Cramer Says You Already Missed the Venezuela Oil Play

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
CNBC's Jim Cramer argues the Venezuela oil trade opened too high for easy profits. Instead, he's pointing investors toward undervalued financials and pharma stocks positioned for long-term gains through 2026.

If you woke up Monday thinking Venezuela's political chaos would hand you easy oil profits, CNBC's Jim Cramer has some bad news: you're already late to the party.

The host spent Monday's show trying to talk investors down from chasing energy stocks that rallied on speculation about Venezuelan oil reserves coming back online. His core argument? By the time retail investors heard about the trade, the opportunity had already evaporated.

The Venezuela Trade That Wasn't

President Donald Trump's moves regarding Venezuelan leadership sent geopolitical shockwaves through energy markets, and stocks like Chevron Corp. (CVX), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), and Halliburton Co. (HAL) jumped on the speculation. But according to Cramer, anyone buying at Monday's open was paying "top dollar to get into this game."

The problem isn't that Venezuela lacks oil reserves. It's that getting those reserves flowing again requires massive infrastructure investment and years of reconstruction work. "You had to pay top dollar to get into this game today," Cramer noted, emphasizing that these stocks "opened too high" for the average investor to capture meaningful upside.

He drew a telling comparison to the Iraq War, reminding viewers that it took nearly a decade for Iraq's oil production to double after the conflict. The math is simple: if you're buying oil stocks now based on Venezuela excitement, you're betting on a multi-year rebuilding process while holding positions purchased at elevated prices. That's not exactly a recipe for quick wins.

For traders who jumped in Monday morning, Cramer sees "high" risk of losses as the initial excitement fades and the reality of expensive, lengthy reconstruction sets in. In his view, the trade is already "suboptimal" by the time it hits your radar.

Where the Real Bargains Are Hiding

So what should investors actually buy? Cramer's turning away from headline-driven trades and toward what he calls "outrageously cheap" stocks with solid fundamentals.

His favorite hunting ground right now is the financial sector, where he sees genuine value thanks to depressed valuations. Top of his list: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Citigroup Inc. (C).

Goldman is trading at just 17 times earnings, which is actually cheaper than the S&P 500 average. That's remarkable for a bank that stands to benefit significantly from any pickup in mergers and acquisitions activity. When deal flow returns, Goldman typically captures a disproportionate share of the fees.

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) caught his eye too, trading at just 12 times earnings. Cramer sees multiple catalysts here: potential interest rate cuts that would benefit the lending business, plus the company's acquisition of Discover, which should create additional value as integration progresses.

The common thread across these financial picks is simple: they offer downside protection through low valuations while maintaining exposure to economic growth. If the economy strengthens, they participate. If things stay choppy, you're not paying sky-high multiples for the privilege of waiting.

One Pharma Pick Worth Considering

Cramer ventured outside financials with one healthcare recommendation: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). The pharma giant has pulled back recently, creating what he views as an attractive entry point.

His thesis centers on value creation from J&J's orthopedic business spin-off. These corporate restructurings often unlock shareholder value as the separated entities gain operational focus and clearer investment narratives. At current prices, Cramer thinks the market isn't fully pricing in that potential.

Stop Trading, Start Investing

The broader message here goes beyond individual stock picks. Cramer is essentially telling investors to abandon what he calls "parlor games" with geopolitical news and refocus on accumulating quality companies at reasonable prices.

"It's very rare these days that everything is unexploited," Cramer observed. Translation: in today's hyper-connected markets, by the time a trade idea reaches mainstream investor consciousness, the easy money has usually been made. "At the opening, you were simply too late," he concluded.

His 2026 playbook emphasizes patience and value over momentum and speculation. Find companies trading below their intrinsic value, buy them at a discount, and let fundamentals do the work. It's not as exciting as trading oil stocks on Venezuela headlines, but it's probably better for your portfolio.

Market Snapshot

Benchmark indices closed higher Monday on the first trading day of the first full week of 2026. In Tuesday's premarket session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.076% at $687.20, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.009% to $618.05, according to market data.

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Why Jim Cramer Says You Already Missed the Venezuela Oil Play

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
CNBC's Jim Cramer argues the Venezuela oil trade opened too high for easy profits. Instead, he's pointing investors toward undervalued financials and pharma stocks positioned for long-term gains through 2026.

If you woke up Monday thinking Venezuela's political chaos would hand you easy oil profits, CNBC's Jim Cramer has some bad news: you're already late to the party.

The host spent Monday's show trying to talk investors down from chasing energy stocks that rallied on speculation about Venezuelan oil reserves coming back online. His core argument? By the time retail investors heard about the trade, the opportunity had already evaporated.

The Venezuela Trade That Wasn't

President Donald Trump's moves regarding Venezuelan leadership sent geopolitical shockwaves through energy markets, and stocks like Chevron Corp. (CVX), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), and Halliburton Co. (HAL) jumped on the speculation. But according to Cramer, anyone buying at Monday's open was paying "top dollar to get into this game."

The problem isn't that Venezuela lacks oil reserves. It's that getting those reserves flowing again requires massive infrastructure investment and years of reconstruction work. "You had to pay top dollar to get into this game today," Cramer noted, emphasizing that these stocks "opened too high" for the average investor to capture meaningful upside.

He drew a telling comparison to the Iraq War, reminding viewers that it took nearly a decade for Iraq's oil production to double after the conflict. The math is simple: if you're buying oil stocks now based on Venezuela excitement, you're betting on a multi-year rebuilding process while holding positions purchased at elevated prices. That's not exactly a recipe for quick wins.

For traders who jumped in Monday morning, Cramer sees "high" risk of losses as the initial excitement fades and the reality of expensive, lengthy reconstruction sets in. In his view, the trade is already "suboptimal" by the time it hits your radar.

Where the Real Bargains Are Hiding

So what should investors actually buy? Cramer's turning away from headline-driven trades and toward what he calls "outrageously cheap" stocks with solid fundamentals.

His favorite hunting ground right now is the financial sector, where he sees genuine value thanks to depressed valuations. Top of his list: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Citigroup Inc. (C).

Goldman is trading at just 17 times earnings, which is actually cheaper than the S&P 500 average. That's remarkable for a bank that stands to benefit significantly from any pickup in mergers and acquisitions activity. When deal flow returns, Goldman typically captures a disproportionate share of the fees.

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) caught his eye too, trading at just 12 times earnings. Cramer sees multiple catalysts here: potential interest rate cuts that would benefit the lending business, plus the company's acquisition of Discover, which should create additional value as integration progresses.

The common thread across these financial picks is simple: they offer downside protection through low valuations while maintaining exposure to economic growth. If the economy strengthens, they participate. If things stay choppy, you're not paying sky-high multiples for the privilege of waiting.

One Pharma Pick Worth Considering

Cramer ventured outside financials with one healthcare recommendation: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). The pharma giant has pulled back recently, creating what he views as an attractive entry point.

His thesis centers on value creation from J&J's orthopedic business spin-off. These corporate restructurings often unlock shareholder value as the separated entities gain operational focus and clearer investment narratives. At current prices, Cramer thinks the market isn't fully pricing in that potential.

Stop Trading, Start Investing

The broader message here goes beyond individual stock picks. Cramer is essentially telling investors to abandon what he calls "parlor games" with geopolitical news and refocus on accumulating quality companies at reasonable prices.

"It's very rare these days that everything is unexploited," Cramer observed. Translation: in today's hyper-connected markets, by the time a trade idea reaches mainstream investor consciousness, the easy money has usually been made. "At the opening, you were simply too late," he concluded.

His 2026 playbook emphasizes patience and value over momentum and speculation. Find companies trading below their intrinsic value, buy them at a discount, and let fundamentals do the work. It's not as exciting as trading oil stocks on Venezuela headlines, but it's probably better for your portfolio.

Market Snapshot

Benchmark indices closed higher Monday on the first trading day of the first full week of 2026. In Tuesday's premarket session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.076% at $687.20, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.009% to $618.05, according to market data.