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Copper's Red-Hot Rally Faces Reality Check

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Copper kicked off 2026 where it left off in 2025, surging past $13,000 per ton as supply disruptions and electrification demand fuel another leg up. But not everyone's convinced the party can last.

Copper started 2026 exactly where it left off: on fire. The red metal blew past $13,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, dragging mining equities along for the ride. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) closed Monday up 3.83% at $154.39, while Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (FCX) jumped 4.78% to end the session at $54.41.

This isn't some flash in the pan either. Copper gained more than 43% in 2025—its best performance since 2009—as supply concerns and trade-related chaos tightened availability across global markets. The momentum carried straight into the new year, fueled by the same factors that made last year so explosive.

Persistent disruptions keep hitting key operations around the world. Problems at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo ate into whatever thin buffer the supply side had left. Then a strike at Chile's Mantoverde mine threw gasoline on the fire, reigniting speculative interest just when things were already tight.

But this isn't just about bad luck at a few mines. According to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, there are deeper structural problems at work. "Years of underinvestment and ongoing mine disruptions have left the market with little buffer, while tariff policy uncertainty and stockpiling are intensifying the squeeze on available metal," she told miningmx. Supply growth simply hasn't kept pace with surging demand from electrification, data centers, and the broader energy transition.

Why Some Analysts Are Pumping the Brakes

Despite the blistering start to 2026, not everyone's ready to chase this rally. BMI, a multinational research firm, is sticking with its 2026 average copper price forecast of $11,000 per ton. According to MiningWeekly, the firm acknowledges that tightening supply and positive sentiment around net-zero sectors will continue supporting prices, but several macroeconomic factors could cap the upside.

The US dollar is one big concern. BMI expects the dollar index to trade broadly between 95 and 100, with the possibility of moving even stronger if the US economy outperforms expectations. "A move to slightly stronger levels is not ruled out, particularly if the US economy outperforms, which, in turn, will cap the upside potential for copper prices," the firm said.

Then there's the demand side. While electric vehicles and renewable energy are expected to anchor consumption, BMI forecasts a slowdown in Chinese growth this year. They're projecting real GDP expansion to ease from 5% in 2025 to about 4.5% in 2026. Ongoing weakness in China's property sector remains a significant headwind, limiting how fast demand can actually accelerate.

That said, BMI isn't bearish on copper's long-term prospects. The firm acknowledges that a deficit will eventually emerge, projecting copper prices reaching $17,000 per ton by 2034 as structural shortfalls persist. Rapid growth in electrification, renewable power, and electric vehicles is expected to outstrip new supply additions, reinforcing copper's critical role in the energy transition.

Price Action: Northisle Copper and Gold Inc. (NTCPF), a junior miner worth watching, closed Monday up 12.59% at $2.150.

Back to Stock Market News

Copper's Red-Hot Rally Faces Reality Check

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Copper kicked off 2026 where it left off in 2025, surging past $13,000 per ton as supply disruptions and electrification demand fuel another leg up. But not everyone's convinced the party can last.

Copper started 2026 exactly where it left off: on fire. The red metal blew past $13,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, dragging mining equities along for the ride. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) closed Monday up 3.83% at $154.39, while Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (FCX) jumped 4.78% to end the session at $54.41.

This isn't some flash in the pan either. Copper gained more than 43% in 2025—its best performance since 2009—as supply concerns and trade-related chaos tightened availability across global markets. The momentum carried straight into the new year, fueled by the same factors that made last year so explosive.

Persistent disruptions keep hitting key operations around the world. Problems at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo ate into whatever thin buffer the supply side had left. Then a strike at Chile's Mantoverde mine threw gasoline on the fire, reigniting speculative interest just when things were already tight.

But this isn't just about bad luck at a few mines. According to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, there are deeper structural problems at work. "Years of underinvestment and ongoing mine disruptions have left the market with little buffer, while tariff policy uncertainty and stockpiling are intensifying the squeeze on available metal," she told miningmx. Supply growth simply hasn't kept pace with surging demand from electrification, data centers, and the broader energy transition.

Why Some Analysts Are Pumping the Brakes

Despite the blistering start to 2026, not everyone's ready to chase this rally. BMI, a multinational research firm, is sticking with its 2026 average copper price forecast of $11,000 per ton. According to MiningWeekly, the firm acknowledges that tightening supply and positive sentiment around net-zero sectors will continue supporting prices, but several macroeconomic factors could cap the upside.

The US dollar is one big concern. BMI expects the dollar index to trade broadly between 95 and 100, with the possibility of moving even stronger if the US economy outperforms expectations. "A move to slightly stronger levels is not ruled out, particularly if the US economy outperforms, which, in turn, will cap the upside potential for copper prices," the firm said.

Then there's the demand side. While electric vehicles and renewable energy are expected to anchor consumption, BMI forecasts a slowdown in Chinese growth this year. They're projecting real GDP expansion to ease from 5% in 2025 to about 4.5% in 2026. Ongoing weakness in China's property sector remains a significant headwind, limiting how fast demand can actually accelerate.

That said, BMI isn't bearish on copper's long-term prospects. The firm acknowledges that a deficit will eventually emerge, projecting copper prices reaching $17,000 per ton by 2034 as structural shortfalls persist. Rapid growth in electrification, renewable power, and electric vehicles is expected to outstrip new supply additions, reinforcing copper's critical role in the energy transition.

Price Action: Northisle Copper and Gold Inc. (NTCPF), a junior miner worth watching, closed Monday up 12.59% at $2.150.