The Long Game in Venezuelan Oil

Here's the thing about rebuilding a collapsed oil industry: it doesn't happen overnight, no matter how dramatic the geopolitical shift. Kiana Danial, CEO of Invest Diva, laid out this reality in a series of posts on X Monday, emphasizing that Venezuela's oil sector reconstruction will require years of contracts, infrastructure investment, and specialized services.

While Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have dominated headlines following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Danial highlights four other energy plays that could capitalize on the situation.

The Infrastructure Players

First up are the oilfield services giants. Schlumberger (SLB) emerges as a key contender in the potential reconstruction effort, bringing the technical expertise needed to revive dormant oil fields. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes (BKR) offers something different: significant exposure to energy infrastructure and the LNG sector, positioning it as what Danial calls a long-term geopolitical hedge.

The Refining Angle

Venezuela's oil isn't just any crude—it's heavy, thick stuff that requires specialized refining capabilities. That's where Marathon Petroleum (MPC) comes into play. As a U.S. refiner equipped to handle heavy crude, the company is strategically positioned to process Venezuelan oil once it starts flowing again.

Phillips 66 (PSX) rounds out Danial's quartet with its refining and logistics infrastructure, offering another avenue to capture value from the Venezuelan oil revival.

Market Reality Check

The Venezuelan crisis has already moved markets. Oil stocks surged following Maduro's capture, with investors betting on the potential revival of the country's petroleum industry. Chevron and Exxon saw gains of 8.52% and 4.20% respectively over the past week.

But there's a split emerging among the major players. According to JPMorgan's Arun Jayaram, companies like Chevron with strong operational leverage could outpace Exxon, whose potential upside tilts more toward legal recovery of assets.

Even Michael Burry has jumped into the conversation, predicting a rebound in Venezuelan crude and pointing to Valero Energy (VLO) as a strategic play for the sector's revitalization.

The Numbers Tell a Story

Over the past year, Danial's four picks have shown impressive momentum. Phillips 66 and Schlumberger have surged 21.54% and 13% respectively, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Baker Hughes and Marathon Petroleum have climbed 14.57% and 24.49% for the same period.

The takeaway? While the Venezuela situation remains fluid and reconstruction will take time, investors are already positioning for a multi-year opportunity that extends well beyond the usual suspects.