Sometimes a stock can look expensive and still be untouchable. That's the case Tesla Inc. (TSLA) presents to Gary Black, Managing Partner of The Future Fund LLC, who's making it clear he won't bet against Elon Musk's electric vehicle empire no matter how stretched the valuation gets.
Why Shorting Isn't Always the Answer
Black took to X on Tuesday to explain his philosophy on short selling, and spoiler alert: it's not for the faint of heart. "Shorting stocks is no picnic," he noted, laying out his criteria for what actually makes a good short candidate.
According to Black, the companies worth betting against are those facing "secular demand decline or permanent market share loss" and lacking the "tech, brand, distribution, or management depth" to turn things around. In other words, you need structural problems, not just a hefty price tag.
"We won't short a company just because it looks expensive – instead we just won't own it," Black explained. He also pointed out that stocks with more than 10% short interest don't make the cut as ideal targets.
Then came the kicker: "We wouldn't short $TSLA even at 198x 2026 Adj EPS. It's too good a company in a thriving business." That's a remarkable statement considering 198x forward earnings would make most value investors break out in hives. But Black's reasoning centers on the bigger picture, including growing global EV adoption and Tesla's potential to solve unsupervised autonomy, which he believes "would sell more Teslas."
He also noted that the company's "marketing issues are easy to fix," suggesting the problems are operational rather than existential.
The Skeptics Weigh In
Not everyone shares Black's optimism about looking past the valuation. George Noble, the former fund manager who ran Fidelity's Overseas Fund, recently voiced concerns about Tesla's stock. Noble also took issue with what he called the "irresponsible figures cited by the narrative promoting $TSLA momentum investors."
Even Michael Burry, the investor famous for "The Big Short," called Tesla "ridiculously overvalued." Burry had previously criticized the company in a blog post, taking aim at what he termed the "Elon cult." Interestingly though, Burry confirmed he's not holding a short position against the EV maker either, apparently agreeing with Black that being right about overvaluation and making money shorting are two different things.
The Marketing Problem
Black hasn't been shy about identifying what needs fixing at Tesla. He's highlighted the company's need for stronger marketing, warning that heavy reliance on word-of-mouth advertising and CEO Musk's pop culture presence might not cut it as competition heats up in the Robotaxi space. Traditional marketing methods could be necessary to prevent the company from falling behind competitors.
Price Action: TSLA gained 0.46% during pre-market trading on Wednesday.