When Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was arrested, you'd think oil markets might have perked up. Instead, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gave a collective shrug. After jumping 2% on Monday, prices reversed course and settled back at $57 per barrel by Tuesday. So much for drama.

"It is premature to evaluate the impact of Nicolas Maduro's capture on the oil balance," Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil, told Reuters. "What seems obvious, nonetheless, is that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member."

That sentiment lines up with a December Reuters poll showing most participants expect oil prices to stay under pressure through 2026. The reasoning? Rising supply and sluggish demand growth. Even when geopolitical tensions flare up, there's enough spare capacity and non-OPEC production coming online to keep a lid on sustained price rallies.

But Venezuela's situation does inject some uncertainty. Maduro's arrest has sparked speculation about potential sanctions relief, which could eventually allow Venezuelan crude back onto global markets. The catch is that Venezuela's oil production has collapsed. Current output hovers around 1 million barrels per day—a shadow of what the country once produced. And restarting meaningful volumes won't happen overnight. Years of neglect have left oil fields, pipelines, and infrastructure in rough shape, requiring enormous investment just to get back in the game.

The Real Problem Nobody's Talking About

Here's where veteran investor Rick Rule thinks the conventional wisdom misses the plot. Yes, there might be enough supply in the near term. But zoom out a few years, and the picture gets dicier. In a Tuesday interview with CapitalCosm, Rule highlighted chronic underinvestment across the oil sector, particularly in countries like Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia—places where political and economic constraints have starved production capacity.

"This underinvestment has consequences for production in the out-years, and I would suspect that underinvestment really comes home to bite in 2028," Rule said. He pegged his median price projection for that timeframe at $85 per barrel, though he wouldn't be shocked to see it go "much, much, much higher."

If that scenario plays out, Rule sees significant upside in the oil field services sector. These companies—the ones that handle drilling, completions, and maintenance—have been capital-starved for years. When producers eventually need to ramp up activity to offset declining production rates, service companies could experience a sharp rebound.

Don't Count on Venezuela (Or Russia) Anytime Soon

Rule is skeptical about quick fixes in Venezuela. "What the United States did was we went in and kidnapped the president. But the government installed by that president and his supporters over the last 20 years at the federal, state, and local levels is all intact. The army is intact. The ministries are intact. The cadres are still in place in municipalities and regional jurisdictions. So this regime change that the popular media is talking about as a fait accompli is anything but," he explained.

Even if political shifts do occur, Venezuela's infrastructure problems mean production gains would come slowly and require massive, sustained investment. Rule sees similar dynamics at play in Russia, where the war in Ukraine has deepened underinvestment across its oil sector.

"Russians have been the primary violators of the deferred sustaining capital investments. They've needed the money for other reasons," he noted. If the war ends, Russia will need "billions and billions and billions of dollars" just to restore production capacity, let alone expand it.

For now, the market seems comfortable with near-term supply. But if Rule's thesis holds, the real squeeze might still be a few years away—and when it arrives, it could catch a lot of people off guard.

Price Watch: U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) is up 8.41% year-to-date.