Bank of America thinks commodity investors should follow a simple game plan in 2026: stay long on gold, catch uranium's second-half rally, and buy copper before everyone else figures out it's undervalued.
In a client note released Wednesday, commodity analyst Lawson Winder laid out three specific plays: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) for precious metals exposure, Cameco Corp. (CCJ) as the nuclear fuel winner, and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) for copper.
When Macro Actually Matters
What makes this call interesting isn't just the stock picks. It's the backdrop. Bank of America is anchoring its thesis to four forces that don't usually move in the same direction at once: rising U.S. industrial policy, a potentially weaker dollar, persistent geopolitical tension, and growing uncertainty around tariffs.
The firm believes policy will drive metals pricing in 2026 just as much as traditional supply and demand. A softer dollar historically lifts metals prices and mining stocks, while tariffs and export controls keep disrupting global supply chains. Where pricing power meets geopolitical relevance, that's where Bank of America is leaning in.
"In 2025, the Metals & Mining industry globally was turned on its head when the US began implementing industrial policy, by directly intervening in sectors deemed to be strategically critical," Winder said. "We expect this to be an increasingly prominent theme in 2026."
Gold: The Aggressive Bet
Bank of America's gold forecast is notably bullish. The firm expects gold to average $4,538 per ounce in 2026, up 32% year-over-year, with an upside scenario hitting $5,000 per ounce.
That's where Agnico Eagle Mines comes in. The firm likes the company's track record of meeting or beating production guidance, its focus on low-risk Canadian assets, and what it sees as unjustified weakness in the stock price during late 2025. Bank of America set a $227 price objective, implying roughly 26% upside from early January levels.
The pitch is straightforward: consistent execution paired with compelling growth potential, at a time when the metal itself is positioned for a significant move higher.
Uranium's Second-Half Story
Cameco is Bank of America's top nuclear energy and fuel pick for 2026, with the firm raising its price target from $115 to $125 per share.
"We think (still) rising electrical energy demand, US trade and industrial policy, Japan restarts, new builds, continued mine supply disruptions, and the (H2) return of US utility buying are key themes to watch in 2026," Winder said.
Bank of America expects uranium prices to rebound sharply in the second half of 2026 as utility buying returns and inventories tighten, following subdued contracting activity in 2024 and 2025. The firm forecasts uranium prices rising 43% year-over-year to $105 per pound in 2026.
Cameco controls 96% of North America's uranium production and has exposure across the entire nuclear supply chain, from mining to conversion to reactor technology. The firm also sees a potential $35.90 per share uplift if Cameco restarts idled assets like Rabbit Lake and Springfields.
Copper's Lag Is the Setup
Freeport-McMoRan rounds out the top three as Bank of America's preferred copper name for 2026. The firm raised its price objective to $68 from $58, citing higher copper valuation multiples and improving operational visibility following the Grasberg mud rush incident in September 2025.
Bank of America expects copper prices to rise 18% year-over-year to an average of $5.33 per pound in 2026. While Chinese demand is expected to slow, the firm believes a rebound in U.S. and European demand, supply disruptions, and trade protection will support prices.
Here's the interesting part: Freeport's shares remain a laggard relative to the commodity itself. Since the September incident, copper prices have climbed sharply, but Bank of America notes that Freeport still trades below where the metal's movement would typically imply. That disconnect is the opportunity.