If you're wondering why crypto started 2026 with actual momentum instead of the usual chaos, ETF trading volumes might have the answer. And the story they're telling isn't about day traders piling in—it's about institutions quietly taking positions.
On-chain data provider Santiment broke down the patterns in a detailed analysis Wednesday, noting that heavy ETF trading doesn't just reflect speculation. It triggers share creation and redemption mechanics that can amplify short-term price moves while improving long-term alignment between ETF prices and the underlying assets.
Bitcoin's Pattern Recognition
Bitcoin (BTC) has nearly two years of ETF data now, and the pattern is becoming clear. Gradual, sustained volume increases tend to support ongoing trends. Sharp, extreme spikes? Those often show up right at major cycle turning points.
Santiment pointed to January 2025 with $13.5 billion in volume and November 2025 at $17.6 billion as prime examples—both aligned with notable trend reversals. The takeaway: Bitcoin ETF volume remains the clearest cyclical signal in crypto markets.
Ethereum's Institutional Shift
Ethereum (ETH) tells a slightly more complicated story, partly because Bitcoin still dominates market psychology. But the same principles apply: one-day volume anomalies tend to stall momentum, while persistent volume growth signals longer-term institutional positioning.
Early 2026 has delivered record ETF volumes for Ethereum, suggesting improved liquidity and what Santiment describes as a potential ownership transition—not the kind of emotionally driven trading that ends badly. The data hints that Ethereum may be entering a sustained phase of institutional accumulation.
Solana's Breakout Moment
Solana (SOL) is the new kid here with limited ETF history, but the data is getting more meaningful fast. A record $220 million trading day—nearly double the previous high—coincided with SOL pushing back above $140.
For newer ETFs like Solana's, Santiment noted these surges may reflect growing credibility and liquidity rather than speculative hype. That interpretation fits with broader capital rotation into high-utility blockchain networks and recent developments like Morgan Stanley filing for a Solana ETF.
The bottom line: ETF volumes suggest Bitcoin remains the most reliable trend indicator, Ethereum is seeing serious institutional accumulation, and Solana is becoming a credible allocation candidate as 2026 gets underway.