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China's Five-Year Plans Don't Guarantee Happy Endings: The Solar and Property Reality Check

MarketDash Editorial Team
22 hours ago
China's solar industry rode policy momentum to massive expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan, only to crash into overcapacity and price wars. Meanwhile, property went from boom to controlled implosion. Both learned the hard way that getting picked by Beijing's planning apparatus doesn't guarantee a smooth landing.

Here's something you learn quickly about investing in China: five-year plans aren't instruction manuals that guarantee success. They're more like choreographed rhythms that periodically reset national priorities, and companies either dance along or get left behind. You can align perfectly with Beijing's stated direction and still end up face-planting when the music suddenly changes.

The 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2021 to 2025 just wrapped up, and two industries tell remarkably similar stories about what happens when you're the star of the show one minute and scrambling to adjust the next. Solar energy got the green light to expand aggressively under China's dual-carbon agenda, only to drown in overcapacity within a few years. Real estate, meanwhile, got slammed with deleveraging requirements and risk controls that sent the entire sector into a prolonged crisis. Both got the beginning right but badly misjudged how the ending would play out.

Solar's Wild Ride From Hero to Survivor

When the 14th Five-Year Plan kicked off, solar power had a clear mission: drive the energy transition, crush power generation costs, and build a bulletproof renewable supply chain. The policy language was unmistakable—"accelerated development," "large-scale deployment," "build whenever feasible." Installed capacity became the metric that mattered, and everyone raced to deliver it.

And deliver they did. China's new solar installations went absolutely vertical, jumping from 48 GW in 2020 to 216 GW in 2023, then surpassing 260 GW in 2024. That's more than a fivefold increase in four years. China locked in its position as the world's biggest solar market and basically crushed the core objective of scaling up capacity.

But here's where things got messy. All that installation growth didn't translate into sustained profits. Capacity across polysilicon production, cells, and modules hit the market almost simultaneously. Polysilicon prices, which peaked above 300 yuan (about $42.91) per kilogram in 2022, collapsed to below 70 yuan by late 2024—a decline exceeding 70%. Cell and module prices followed the same ugly trajectory. Even with growing global demand, the market couldn't absorb the flood of new capacity, and the industry spiraled into a vicious "volume-for-price" competition trap.

The stock market carnage tells the story. Over the past five years, Longi Green Energy shed roughly 65% of its market value, Tongwei lost nearly 50%, JinkoSolar dropped more than 55%, and Trina Solar fell around 25%. Shipments and revenue generally kept climbing, but valuation multiples for industry leaders collapsed as investors reassessed whether solar could still deliver outsized returns after its policy-driven expansion phase.

The shift shows up in how Beijing talks about the sector now. The 14th Five-Year Plan was all about "scale." But forward-looking signals for the 15th Five-Year Plan lean heavily on phrases like "high-quality development," "orderly construction," "grid integration," and "market mechanisms." Translation: solar is moving from mandatory expansion mode to selective consolidation. The party's over, time to clean up.

Property's Controlled Demolition

If solar's slowdown was an unintended consequence of success, property's crash was a deliberate policy choice. Early in the 14th Five-Year Plan, Beijing rolled out the "three red lines" and tighter financing rules to force deleveraging. Add in the pandemic, and core industry metrics went into free fall.

National housing sales area dropped from 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to roughly 973 million square meters in 2024—a decline of about 45%. In the first eleven months of 2025, sales slipped further to around 787 million square meters. Property investment and new construction starts collapsed alongside sales and still haven't found a bottom.

Facing squeezed funding and evaporating sales, major developers hit various stages of crisis. Vanke entered financial strain territory, while Evergrande and Country Garden tumbled into full-blown disasters. Evergrande got delisted and its founder Hui Ka Yan was detained. By some counts, roughly 77 Chinese developers have defaulted over the past five years. The survivors focused on paying down debt and delivering existing projects, slashing land purchases and new investments—which hammered demand across the entire property supply chain.

Upstream building materials got hit first. Cement and flat glass output declined for three consecutive years starting in 2021. Cement production fell from 2.36 billion tons in 2021 to 1.83 billion tons in 2024. July 2024 cement output hit just 146 million tons—the lowest monthly figure since 2009. Prices weakened alongside volumes, and even relatively strong players like China National Building Material struggled to protect margins.

Midstream construction and decoration companies felt the pain too. Slower residential construction directly affected order flows at China Lesso. Companies like Kuka Home, which rode the "post-property cycle plus consumption upgrade" narrative, lost key growth drivers as new housing supply dried up. Weaker consumer demand and overseas expansion challenges compounded the problem. Over five years, Kuka Home shares dropped more than 41%, while China Lesso fell nearly 62%.

Even the supposedly defensive property management sector took a beating. As developer deliveries declined, growth in newly managed floor area slowed sharply. Country Garden Services, heavily dependent on its developer parent's pipeline, saw its scale-driven growth model collapse. The valuation story shifted from expansion to survival. Its shares have cratered more than 90% over five years.

Dancing to Beijing's Rhythm

What solar and property really share isn't strategic incompetence. It's their position within a tightly choreographed policy system. When that system demands speed, scale, and stability—and expects stage-specific objectives to be met within fixed timeframes—companies have limited options except to comply. Industries elevated to center stage in one planning cycle may be required to slow down, or even step back, in the next.

Getting lifted by the policy wave and then struggling as it recedes is just part of the rhythm. For solar and property, the task now is straightforward: regain balance, consolidate what's left, and wait for the next turn of the policy tide. Because in China's planning system, today's policy darling can quickly become tomorrow's overcapacity problem—and vice versa.

This is part 1 in a 5-part series

Back to Stock Market News

China's Five-Year Plans Don't Guarantee Happy Endings: The Solar and Property Reality Check

MarketDash Editorial Team
22 hours ago
China's solar industry rode policy momentum to massive expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan, only to crash into overcapacity and price wars. Meanwhile, property went from boom to controlled implosion. Both learned the hard way that getting picked by Beijing's planning apparatus doesn't guarantee a smooth landing.

Here's something you learn quickly about investing in China: five-year plans aren't instruction manuals that guarantee success. They're more like choreographed rhythms that periodically reset national priorities, and companies either dance along or get left behind. You can align perfectly with Beijing's stated direction and still end up face-planting when the music suddenly changes.

The 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2021 to 2025 just wrapped up, and two industries tell remarkably similar stories about what happens when you're the star of the show one minute and scrambling to adjust the next. Solar energy got the green light to expand aggressively under China's dual-carbon agenda, only to drown in overcapacity within a few years. Real estate, meanwhile, got slammed with deleveraging requirements and risk controls that sent the entire sector into a prolonged crisis. Both got the beginning right but badly misjudged how the ending would play out.

Solar's Wild Ride From Hero to Survivor

When the 14th Five-Year Plan kicked off, solar power had a clear mission: drive the energy transition, crush power generation costs, and build a bulletproof renewable supply chain. The policy language was unmistakable—"accelerated development," "large-scale deployment," "build whenever feasible." Installed capacity became the metric that mattered, and everyone raced to deliver it.

And deliver they did. China's new solar installations went absolutely vertical, jumping from 48 GW in 2020 to 216 GW in 2023, then surpassing 260 GW in 2024. That's more than a fivefold increase in four years. China locked in its position as the world's biggest solar market and basically crushed the core objective of scaling up capacity.

But here's where things got messy. All that installation growth didn't translate into sustained profits. Capacity across polysilicon production, cells, and modules hit the market almost simultaneously. Polysilicon prices, which peaked above 300 yuan (about $42.91) per kilogram in 2022, collapsed to below 70 yuan by late 2024—a decline exceeding 70%. Cell and module prices followed the same ugly trajectory. Even with growing global demand, the market couldn't absorb the flood of new capacity, and the industry spiraled into a vicious "volume-for-price" competition trap.

The stock market carnage tells the story. Over the past five years, Longi Green Energy shed roughly 65% of its market value, Tongwei lost nearly 50%, JinkoSolar dropped more than 55%, and Trina Solar fell around 25%. Shipments and revenue generally kept climbing, but valuation multiples for industry leaders collapsed as investors reassessed whether solar could still deliver outsized returns after its policy-driven expansion phase.

The shift shows up in how Beijing talks about the sector now. The 14th Five-Year Plan was all about "scale." But forward-looking signals for the 15th Five-Year Plan lean heavily on phrases like "high-quality development," "orderly construction," "grid integration," and "market mechanisms." Translation: solar is moving from mandatory expansion mode to selective consolidation. The party's over, time to clean up.

Property's Controlled Demolition

If solar's slowdown was an unintended consequence of success, property's crash was a deliberate policy choice. Early in the 14th Five-Year Plan, Beijing rolled out the "three red lines" and tighter financing rules to force deleveraging. Add in the pandemic, and core industry metrics went into free fall.

National housing sales area dropped from 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to roughly 973 million square meters in 2024—a decline of about 45%. In the first eleven months of 2025, sales slipped further to around 787 million square meters. Property investment and new construction starts collapsed alongside sales and still haven't found a bottom.

Facing squeezed funding and evaporating sales, major developers hit various stages of crisis. Vanke entered financial strain territory, while Evergrande and Country Garden tumbled into full-blown disasters. Evergrande got delisted and its founder Hui Ka Yan was detained. By some counts, roughly 77 Chinese developers have defaulted over the past five years. The survivors focused on paying down debt and delivering existing projects, slashing land purchases and new investments—which hammered demand across the entire property supply chain.

Upstream building materials got hit first. Cement and flat glass output declined for three consecutive years starting in 2021. Cement production fell from 2.36 billion tons in 2021 to 1.83 billion tons in 2024. July 2024 cement output hit just 146 million tons—the lowest monthly figure since 2009. Prices weakened alongside volumes, and even relatively strong players like China National Building Material struggled to protect margins.

Midstream construction and decoration companies felt the pain too. Slower residential construction directly affected order flows at China Lesso. Companies like Kuka Home, which rode the "post-property cycle plus consumption upgrade" narrative, lost key growth drivers as new housing supply dried up. Weaker consumer demand and overseas expansion challenges compounded the problem. Over five years, Kuka Home shares dropped more than 41%, while China Lesso fell nearly 62%.

Even the supposedly defensive property management sector took a beating. As developer deliveries declined, growth in newly managed floor area slowed sharply. Country Garden Services, heavily dependent on its developer parent's pipeline, saw its scale-driven growth model collapse. The valuation story shifted from expansion to survival. Its shares have cratered more than 90% over five years.

Dancing to Beijing's Rhythm

What solar and property really share isn't strategic incompetence. It's their position within a tightly choreographed policy system. When that system demands speed, scale, and stability—and expects stage-specific objectives to be met within fixed timeframes—companies have limited options except to comply. Industries elevated to center stage in one planning cycle may be required to slow down, or even step back, in the next.

Getting lifted by the policy wave and then struggling as it recedes is just part of the rhythm. For solar and property, the task now is straightforward: regain balance, consolidate what's left, and wait for the next turn of the policy tide. Because in China's planning system, today's policy darling can quickly become tomorrow's overcapacity problem—and vice versa.

This is part 1 in a 5-part series

    China's Five-Year Plans Don't Guarantee Happy Endings: The Solar and Property Reality Check - MarketDash News