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Is Nvidia Actually Cheap? The AI Giant's Surprising Valuation Puzzle

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Nvidia's stock has slipped 10% from its October highs while fundamentals hit record levels, creating an unusual disconnect that has analysts wondering if the AI leader is becoming an unexpected value opportunity.

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Here's something you don't hear every day: Nvidia Corp (NVDA) looks cheap. Not cheap in the "wow, what a bargain" sense that value investors dream about, but cheap relative to its own history. And for a company that's basically become synonymous with the AI revolution, that's worth paying attention to.

As 2026 kicks off, the most dominant player in artificial intelligence is quietly trading like it's catching a break. Shares have dropped about 10% from their late-October peak, even as Wall Street analysts have been busily raising their expectations for future revenue and earnings. That's the kind of disconnect that makes people wonder what's really going on.

Right now, Nvidia trades at roughly 27 times forward earnings. Over the past five years, the stock has averaged closer to 38 times forward earnings. Do the math, and you're looking at valuations that are about 30% cheaper than what investors have historically paid for this company. According to analyst ratings data, the consensus price target sits at $260.61, which would represent 37% upside from the January 7 close of $189.11.

For a growth stock that's been on an absolute tear, this is unusual territory.

The CES Presentation That Didn't Move the Needle

Earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at CES in Las Vegas and did what he does best: paint a picture of the future that sounds both wildly ambitious and entirely plausible.

He unveiled the Vera Rubin chip platform, which is already in production. The system is designed to deliver significantly more power than Blackwell while consuming less energy, bringing the cost of running AI workloads down to roughly one-tenth of what current systems require. That's not incremental improvement—that's the kind of efficiency gain that changes economics.

Huang also spent time highlighting Nvidia's growing presence in autonomous driving software and robotics, making it clear that the company's AI ambitions reach far beyond the data centers that have fueled its recent growth.

The market's reaction? Barely a shrug.

Despite the bullish showcase, Nvidia shares hardly moved. In fact, the stock kept drifting lower, continuing a slide that's persisted since late October.

Record Fundamentals, Discount Valuation

This is where things get interesting. The disconnect between what the company is achieving and how the stock is priced has caught the attention of market watchers who've seen this movie before.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research noted that Nvidia shares look "notably inexpensive relative to expectations for its fundamentals." Forward revenue is at record levels. Forward profit margins are at record levels. Forward operating earnings per share are at record levels. Yet the stock keeps sliding.

So what's happening here? Is the stock just catching its breath after an incredible run, or is something more fundamental shifting?

The exhaustion theory makes sense. Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late November 2022, Nvidia shares have rocketed more than 1,000%. That kind of ascent can leave even the strongest stocks needing a pause. Investors who've made enormous gains might simply be taking chips off the table.

But Yardeni points to a potentially bigger concern: competition is heating up.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is making aggressive moves into AI chips with high-memory configurations. Cloud giants including Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Microsoft Corp (MSFT) have developed their own custom silicon that's increasingly being used by their customers. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) and emerging players like South Korea's FuriosaAI are also jumping into the arena.

None of these challengers has yet matched the tightly integrated hardware-software ecosystem that's made Nvidia the undisputed king of AI computing. But the competitive noise is definitely getting louder, and markets tend to discount threats before they fully materialize.

Bank of America Says the Moat Holds

Not everyone is worried. At Bank of America, semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya remains firmly in Nvidia's corner.

Following the CES keynote, Arya reiterated a $275 price target, implying roughly 45% upside from current levels. He said the event confirmed that AI demand remains "very high," with scaling trends still accelerating rather than showing any signs of plateauing.

Arya highlighted something crucial: Nvidia's ability to deliver both performance gains and cost compression simultaneously. AI token generation is rising roughly fivefold per year, while the cost per token is falling about tenfold annually. That kind of efficiency improvement strengthens Nvidia's competitive position as customers become more focused on returns rather than just raw computing power.

The Physical AI Frontier

Perhaps the most fascinating element of Nvidia's CES presentation was the company's push beyond text-based AI into what it calls "physical AI."

The company introduced Alpamayo, an open AI model platform designed to bring reasoning and decision-making capabilities into autonomous vehicles. Combined with Nvidia's GR00T models for robotics, it signals a major push into machines that don't just process information—they perceive, reason, and act in the real world.

According to Nvidia, the first passenger vehicle using these new reasoning models is expected to hit the road as early as the first quarter of 2026. That's not some distant future projection—that's right around the corner.

The Value Stock Question

Here's what makes this moment unusual: Nvidia today sits at a crossroads that rarely appears for market darlings. The company is growing faster than ever, innovating aggressively, and expanding into entirely new industries. Yet its stock trades at a steep discount to its own historical valuation.

Whether this proves to be a rare buying opportunity or the beginning of a longer normalization phase will depend largely on how competition evolves and whether Nvidia can maintain its blistering pace of innovation. The market clearly has questions about sustainability, even if the fundamentals don't show cracks yet.

What's undeniable right now is that investor enthusiasm has cooled considerably faster than Nvidia's actual business performance. Revenue keeps climbing, margins keep expanding, and the company keeps unveiling technological advances that sound like science fiction.

That disconnect is precisely what has investors asking a question that would have seemed absurd just a year ago: Is Nvidia, the poster child of the AI boom, quietly becoming one of the most compelling value opportunities heading into 2026?

For a company that's spent years trading on growth and momentum, being discussed in the same breath as "value" and "discount" represents a striking shift in narrative. Whether that shift reflects wisdom or opportunity is the question that will define Nvidia's next chapter.

Back to Stock Market News

Is Nvidia Actually Cheap? The AI Giant's Surprising Valuation Puzzle

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Nvidia's stock has slipped 10% from its October highs while fundamentals hit record levels, creating an unusual disconnect that has analysts wondering if the AI leader is becoming an unexpected value opportunity.

Get Advanced Micro Devices Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

Here's something you don't hear every day: Nvidia Corp (NVDA) looks cheap. Not cheap in the "wow, what a bargain" sense that value investors dream about, but cheap relative to its own history. And for a company that's basically become synonymous with the AI revolution, that's worth paying attention to.

As 2026 kicks off, the most dominant player in artificial intelligence is quietly trading like it's catching a break. Shares have dropped about 10% from their late-October peak, even as Wall Street analysts have been busily raising their expectations for future revenue and earnings. That's the kind of disconnect that makes people wonder what's really going on.

Right now, Nvidia trades at roughly 27 times forward earnings. Over the past five years, the stock has averaged closer to 38 times forward earnings. Do the math, and you're looking at valuations that are about 30% cheaper than what investors have historically paid for this company. According to analyst ratings data, the consensus price target sits at $260.61, which would represent 37% upside from the January 7 close of $189.11.

For a growth stock that's been on an absolute tear, this is unusual territory.

The CES Presentation That Didn't Move the Needle

Earlier this week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at CES in Las Vegas and did what he does best: paint a picture of the future that sounds both wildly ambitious and entirely plausible.

He unveiled the Vera Rubin chip platform, which is already in production. The system is designed to deliver significantly more power than Blackwell while consuming less energy, bringing the cost of running AI workloads down to roughly one-tenth of what current systems require. That's not incremental improvement—that's the kind of efficiency gain that changes economics.

Huang also spent time highlighting Nvidia's growing presence in autonomous driving software and robotics, making it clear that the company's AI ambitions reach far beyond the data centers that have fueled its recent growth.

The market's reaction? Barely a shrug.

Despite the bullish showcase, Nvidia shares hardly moved. In fact, the stock kept drifting lower, continuing a slide that's persisted since late October.

Record Fundamentals, Discount Valuation

This is where things get interesting. The disconnect between what the company is achieving and how the stock is priced has caught the attention of market watchers who've seen this movie before.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research noted that Nvidia shares look "notably inexpensive relative to expectations for its fundamentals." Forward revenue is at record levels. Forward profit margins are at record levels. Forward operating earnings per share are at record levels. Yet the stock keeps sliding.

So what's happening here? Is the stock just catching its breath after an incredible run, or is something more fundamental shifting?

The exhaustion theory makes sense. Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late November 2022, Nvidia shares have rocketed more than 1,000%. That kind of ascent can leave even the strongest stocks needing a pause. Investors who've made enormous gains might simply be taking chips off the table.

But Yardeni points to a potentially bigger concern: competition is heating up.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is making aggressive moves into AI chips with high-memory configurations. Cloud giants including Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Microsoft Corp (MSFT) have developed their own custom silicon that's increasingly being used by their customers. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) and emerging players like South Korea's FuriosaAI are also jumping into the arena.

None of these challengers has yet matched the tightly integrated hardware-software ecosystem that's made Nvidia the undisputed king of AI computing. But the competitive noise is definitely getting louder, and markets tend to discount threats before they fully materialize.

Bank of America Says the Moat Holds

Not everyone is worried. At Bank of America, semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya remains firmly in Nvidia's corner.

Following the CES keynote, Arya reiterated a $275 price target, implying roughly 45% upside from current levels. He said the event confirmed that AI demand remains "very high," with scaling trends still accelerating rather than showing any signs of plateauing.

Arya highlighted something crucial: Nvidia's ability to deliver both performance gains and cost compression simultaneously. AI token generation is rising roughly fivefold per year, while the cost per token is falling about tenfold annually. That kind of efficiency improvement strengthens Nvidia's competitive position as customers become more focused on returns rather than just raw computing power.

The Physical AI Frontier

Perhaps the most fascinating element of Nvidia's CES presentation was the company's push beyond text-based AI into what it calls "physical AI."

The company introduced Alpamayo, an open AI model platform designed to bring reasoning and decision-making capabilities into autonomous vehicles. Combined with Nvidia's GR00T models for robotics, it signals a major push into machines that don't just process information—they perceive, reason, and act in the real world.

According to Nvidia, the first passenger vehicle using these new reasoning models is expected to hit the road as early as the first quarter of 2026. That's not some distant future projection—that's right around the corner.

The Value Stock Question

Here's what makes this moment unusual: Nvidia today sits at a crossroads that rarely appears for market darlings. The company is growing faster than ever, innovating aggressively, and expanding into entirely new industries. Yet its stock trades at a steep discount to its own historical valuation.

Whether this proves to be a rare buying opportunity or the beginning of a longer normalization phase will depend largely on how competition evolves and whether Nvidia can maintain its blistering pace of innovation. The market clearly has questions about sustainability, even if the fundamentals don't show cracks yet.

What's undeniable right now is that investor enthusiasm has cooled considerably faster than Nvidia's actual business performance. Revenue keeps climbing, margins keep expanding, and the company keeps unveiling technological advances that sound like science fiction.

That disconnect is precisely what has investors asking a question that would have seemed absurd just a year ago: Is Nvidia, the poster child of the AI boom, quietly becoming one of the most compelling value opportunities heading into 2026?

For a company that's spent years trading on growth and momentum, being discussed in the same breath as "value" and "discount" represents a striking shift in narrative. Whether that shift reflects wisdom or opportunity is the question that will define Nvidia's next chapter.