Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY) shares are treading water Thursday morning as the company gears up to report fiscal second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell. The stock is sitting near recent lows, but there's more to this story than just another earnings report.

The Real Story: Cannabis Rescheduling Could Change Everything

Wall Street expects Tilray to post a loss of 20 cents per share on quarterly revenue of $210.95 million. Those numbers matter, sure, but investors are really focused on something with much bigger implications: the company's new subsidiary, Tilray Medical USA, and how it's positioned to capitalize on what looks like an inevitable federal policy shift.

Here's why that matters. Cannabis is expected to be reclassified from Schedule I to Schedule III, which sounds bureaucratic but could be a genuine game-changer for profitability. Under current rules, cannabis companies can't deduct standard business expenses like rent, salaries, or marketing. It's a massive tax burden. Rescheduling would remove that constraint, potentially unlocking millions in annual cash flow for Tilray without the company changing anything about its operations.

That's the kind of regulatory tailwind that could flip the script on a struggling stock. While we wait for earnings, the broader market is showing mixed signals, with the Dow Jones up 0.35% and the Nasdaq-100 down 0.63%.

The Technical Picture Isn't Pretty

Let's be honest about where Tilray stands technically. The stock is trading 11.4% below its 20-day simple moving average and 25.7% below its 100-day moving average. That's a bearish short-term trend, plain and simple. Over the past year, shares have dropped 34.09% and are hovering much closer to their 52-week lows than highs.

The RSI sits at 43.22, which is neutral territory, meaning the stock isn't oversold (bargain hunters) or overbought (time to take profits). Meanwhile, MACD is below its signal line, flashing bearish pressure. Put those together and you get mixed momentum: not crashing, but not exactly inspiring confidence either.

Key resistance to watch is $10.50, which would require a meaningful catalyst to reach from current levels.

What Analysts Are Saying

Recent analyst moves show a divided street. Jefferies maintains a Buy rating and recently raised its price target to $2.00. Zelman & Associates sits at Neutral, while Piper Sandler also rates it Neutral but lowered its target to $1.00. That's a pretty wide range of opinions, which tells you analysts are having trouble agreeing on where this goes next.

Momentum Rankings Signal Weakness

The momentum picture for Tilray Brands shows clear struggles. The stock scores just 27.96 out of 100 on momentum metrics, indicating it's significantly underperforming the broader market. With such a low score, the stock is having trouble gaining traction, which suggests potential headwinds for investors in the near term.

The ETF Connection You Should Know About

Here's an interesting wrinkle: Tilray makes up 14.33% of the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and 1.50% of the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO).

Why does that matter? Because when you're weighted that heavily in an ETF, especially at 14.33%, the fund's flows become your flows. If investors pour money into MJ, the fund has to automatically buy more Tilray. If they pull money out, the fund has to sell. Your stock price becomes partially driven by ETF mechanics rather than fundamentals. It's worth watching if you're trying to understand seemingly random price movements.

Price Action

Tilray Brands shares were up 0.72% at $9.05 at the time of publication Thursday.