There's a peculiar superstition in retail trading circles: when CNBC's Jim Cramer publicly endorses a stock, you should probably run the other direction. So when the Mad Money host posted "Look out Palantir shorts, here we go again!" Thursday morning, the Inverse Cramer crowd immediately braced for impact.

They weren't wrong to worry. Palantir shares promptly fell at the open, eventually trading around $175, down more than 3.5%. The so-called Cramer curse struck again—or did it?

Venezuela Victory Lap

Palantir shares had actually been climbing earlier in the week following the dramatic U.S.-led operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro. While Palantir never confirms its involvement in classified missions, investors instinctively connected the precision of the raid to the company's Gotham and AIP intelligence platforms.

The stock climbed nearly 4% Monday, another 3% Tuesday, and traded as high as $187.28 Wednesday before closing at $181.68. The Venezuela operation seemed to validate what Palantir bulls have been arguing all along: this is the AI defense company of the future.

The Defense Spending Tailwind

Then came another catalyst. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday night that he wants to boost military spending by 50% in 2027. Traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) surged Thursday on the news.

Trump also threatened to restrict dividends and buybacks for legacy contractors to force faster production, but the administration's emphasis on AI-driven efficiency should play directly into Palantir's hands. Yet Palantir didn't join the defense rally. Instead, it fell—right after Cramer's post.

Curse or Just Valuation?

So what happened? Did Cramer actually curse the stock, or is something else going on? With a trailing P/E ratio north of 400x, Palantir was trading at stratospheric valuations even before Thursday's dip. The pullback could simply be healthy profit-taking after a strong run.

Cramer's vocal support often does mark a near-term top, but the fundamentals here are genuinely compelling. The successful Venezuela mission and the prospect of record-breaking defense budgets make Palantir a difficult stock to bet against, superstition aside.

Palantir shorts should indeed "look out"—but they might want to watch signals from the White House more closely than posts from Cramer. Shares were down 3.69% at $174.98 at the time of publication Thursday.