When the Internet Disappears

Nothing says "everything is fine here" quite like shutting down the entire internet. Iranian authorities did exactly that on Thursday, imposing a nationwide communications blackout as anti-government protests entered their 12th consecutive night.

NetBlocks, an organization that monitors internet connectivity worldwide, confirmed the outage. Tehran and several other major cities entered what the group called a state of "digital blackout." Beyond the complete shutdowns, dozens of other cities experienced severe slowdowns and repeated disruptions, making it nearly impossible for Iranians to communicate with each other or share information about what's actually happening on the ground.

MarketDash couldn't access websites of several Iranian news outlets either, receiving only error messages consistent with a broader communications lockdown.

The Protests Keep Growing

The demonstrations, now stretching into nearly two weeks, started over Iran's deteriorating economic situation. Soaring inflation and collapsing living standards finally pushed people into the streets, and the protests have since spread to cities that hadn't previously seen unrest, including parts of Tehran itself.

The human cost has been significant. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based nonprofit, at least 42 people have been killed during the unrest. That includes five minors under 18 and eight members of the security forces. In some areas, clashes between protesters and security forces have turned violent.

What State Media Says vs. What's Really Happening

Iranian state media has been working overtime to downplay what's going on. They've been broadcasting footage of empty streets and insisting everything is normal, according to BBC. State outlets have dismissed protesters in Tehran as just a small group of "rioters."

But BBC has verified multiple videos that tell a very different story. One shows buildings on fire near the office of the Young Journalists Club, a subsidiary of Iran's state broadcaster, IRIB. The cause of the fire remains unclear, but it's definitely not the calm scene state media wants people to see.

Another verified video from Khorramabad captures something even more symbolic: a protester raising Iran's Lion and Sun flag to cheers from the crowd. That flag is closely associated with opposition to the current regime, making its public display a powerful statement.

The Exiled Prince Speaks Out

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, hasn't stayed quiet. He said on X that "millions of Iranians demanded their freedom" and accused the government of cutting off all communications to silence dissent.

Pahlavi warned that the regime has shut down the internet, cut landlines, and "may even attempt to jam satellite" signals. He thanked President Donald Trump for "reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account" and urged European leaders to take action as well.

Betting Markets Think Change Is Coming

Here's where things get interesting from a markets perspective. Prediction markets have sharply raised the odds that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could actually lose power this year. On Polymarket, the probability of Iran's supreme leader being ousted by midyear jumped to 36%, up from 28% just a day earlier and 21% a week ago.

That's a dramatic shift in a short period. Whether these markets are accurately reading the situation or getting caught up in momentum is anyone's guess, but the movement itself shows how seriously some traders are taking these protests.