Friday morning delivered a textbook example of how geopolitical chaos creates market winners and losers. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher, lifted by defense contractors and energy giants, while Nasdaq futures slipped as investors contemplated the inflationary mess that could follow a full-blown Middle East conflict.
The split makes sense when you think about it. Iran is facing what analysts are calling its most serious existential crisis in decades, and that kind of instability tends to favor companies that sell missiles and oil over those that sell cloud software and AI chips.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.01% |
| S&P 500 | -0.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.03% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.05% |
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both closed lower. SPY dipped 0.01% to $689.51, while QQQ fell 0.60% to $620.47.
Crude Oil Surges on Supply Disruption Fears
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for February delivery rose 0.64% to $58.13 per barrel, breaking a recent losing streak. That might not sound like much, but it represents a meaningful shift in sentiment.
Traders are aggressively hedging against two nightmare scenarios: closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows) or direct damage to Iranian oil infrastructure. President Donald Trump's recent warning that the U.S. might intervene to "rescue" Iranian protesters added fuel to the speculation fire.
Making matters more tense, the Iranian government has initiated a nationwide internet blackout to suppress dissent. When regimes start cutting communications, energy markets start pricing in risk premiums, and that's exactly what's happening now.
Gold and Silver Take a Breather
Despite dominating headlines all week as the ultimate safe haven play, precious metals saw a minor technical pullback Friday after hitting historic highs.
Spot gold traded at $4,460.77, down 0.37%, though it remains remarkably close to its 52-week peak of roughly $4,550. Silver followed a similar path, dipping 0.61% to $76.53.
"Gold has support at $4410-4355, while resistance is at $4525-4560. Silver has support at $75.10-73.45 while resistance is at $80.05-82.40," said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd.