If you're waiting for Venezuelan oil to flood global markets and crash prices, billionaire investor Jim Mellon has some bad news: you're going to be waiting a while. Speaking on the Master Investor podcast Wednesday, Mellon painted a picture of an industry that's been run into the ground and won't recover overnight, no matter how dramatic the political changes.

The Long Road Back

Mellon's timeline isn't exactly encouraging for anyone hoping for a quick fix. "It will take at least 5 to 10 years before they can get back up to what they had," he said, referring to Venezuela's previous output of 3 million barrels of crude oil per day. That's a massive undertaking for a country whose oil infrastructure has deteriorated significantly over years of mismanagement and underinvestment.

And even if Venezuela manages to hit that 3 million barrel target, the global impact might be smaller than you'd think. As Mellon pointed out, "in the context of over 100 million barrels a day" of current global output, it's really just "enough to change things at the margin." Important? Sure. Revolutionary? Not quite.

Heavy Crude, Heavy Opportunity

Here's where things get interesting for American investors. Venezuela's oil isn't the light, sweet crude that's easy to refine. It's heavy, thick stuff that requires sophisticated refining capabilities. And guess who has exactly that kind of capacity sitting around? American refiners.

"We also know that it's very heavy oil," Mellon explained, noting that the US has "lots of spare capacity for heavy oil." The timing couldn't be better. With the country now at "peak shale" and not buying as much oil from Canada (which also produces heavy crude), American refineries have room to process more heavy Venezuelan barrels when they eventually start flowing.

This unique positioning is why Mellon isn't shy about his investment recommendation: "I'd suggest loading up on oil and gas."

Refiners Already Running Hot

Wall Street didn't wait for the oil to actually start flowing. American energy companies with the right refining setup have seen massive gains since US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. The market is betting on future supply, and it's betting big.

The numbers tell the story. Over just one week, Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) jumped 17.20%, while PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) surged 17.64%. Phillips 66 (PSX) gained 11.80%, and even Chevron Corp. (CVX) climbed 4.67%. The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which tracks companies deriving significant revenue from refining and marketing, rose 3.27%.

These are companies with sophisticated refineries capable of handling heavy crude oil inputs, exactly the kind of infrastructure needed to process Venezuelan oil when it becomes available.

Trump's Bold Claims

While experts like Mellon are tempering expectations with talk of five to ten year timelines, President Donald Trump made some eyebrow-raising claims on Tuesday. He said Venezuela will be "turning over" 30 to 50 million barrels of "high quality, sanctioned oil" to the United States.

According to Trump, this oil will be sold at market prices, with proceeds going to "benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States." That's quite different from the gradual production ramp-up scenario that industry experts are describing, but it adds another layer of optimism to the refining sector's rally.

The Refining Play

For investors looking to position themselves in this space, the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) offers broad exposure to the refining sector. The fund tracks energy stocks that generate a significant portion of revenue from refining and marketing operations. It's worth noting that the fund currently scores high on momentum metrics, showing favorable price trends in both medium and long-term timeframes.

The key takeaway? Even though Venezuela's oil recovery is measured in years rather than months, the market is already pricing in the eventual benefit to US refiners. Whether you believe Trump's optimistic timeline or Mellon's more cautious projection, the underlying story is the same: American refiners with heavy crude capacity are sitting in the sweet spot, and investors are taking notice.