Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has some ambitious predictions for where the economy is headed. Speaking on the All-In Podcast on Thursday, he laid out a vision of 6% GDP growth by 2026, crediting President Donald Trump's policies for what would be a genuinely impressive economic surge.

The driving force behind this optimistic forecast? Lutnick points to a wave of factory and auto plant construction fueled by corporate investments under the current administration. He also floated the idea that a new Federal Reserve chair willing to cut interest rates could push growth even higher, though that's still speculative territory.

When billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya asked him to put 6% growth in perspective, Lutnick emphasized what that would actually mean on the ground: a substantial increase in high-paying jobs and genuine economic expansion, not just inflation dressed up as growth.

The Shutdown Problem

Here's where things get messy. Lutnick warned that fourth quarter GDP is going to look like a "mess" because of the prolonged federal shutdown. The issue is straightforward but frustrating: the government has been paying federal workers who couldn't actually be productive due to the shutdown, creating a weird drag on GDP calculations.

"So our fourth quarter GDP will be a point and a half lower than it otherwise would be for this oddity," Lutnick explained. That's a significant hit from what amounts to an accounting quirk.

Strong Numbers, Mixed Signals

The timing of Lutnick's prediction is interesting. The economy is currently sending contradictory messages. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model just raised its estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 real GDP growth to 5.4% annualized, which would be the strongest quarterly performance since 1984. Much of that strength comes from a narrower trade deficit following Trump's tariff policies.

But not everyone is convinced the picture is as rosy as it appears. Economist David Rosenberg has raised concerns about a disconnect between official government numbers and actual industrial activity on the ground. Despite robust 4.3% growth in the third quarter, Rosenberg argues the economy is showing signs of recessionary weakness similar to what we saw during the 2009 financial crisis.

So we've got a Commerce Secretary predicting extraordinary growth ahead, current data showing the strongest quarterly performance in decades, and some economists warning that beneath the surface things look shakier than the headline numbers suggest. Welcome to trying to make sense of the economy in 2025.