Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) is having one of those classic "what goes up must come down" Fridays. After surging Thursday on news of a Walmart partnership, shares are pulling back after TD Cowen decided to downgrade the hydrogen play from Buy to Hold while cutting its price target in half, from $4.00 down to $2.00. So much for momentum.

The Walmart Deal That Got Everyone Excited

Let's rewind to what sparked Thursday's rally. According to a recent SEC filing, Plug Power inked an agreement with Walmart to provide a limited-use license for certain GenKey System-related materials. The goal here is to help Walmart identify and qualify alternative stack suppliers, which could theoretically strengthen Plug Power's market positioning. Not exactly earth-shattering news, but enough to get traders interested.

Beyond the Walmart arrangement, Plug Power has been making some smart financial moves. The company successfully refinanced high-interest debt by replacing it with a convertible note offering that exceeded $430 million. That's a meaningful step toward cleaning up the balance sheet. Add in progress on projects in France and Namibia, and you've got what looks like a strategic pivot toward more sustainable growth. Whether that translates to profitability is another question entirely.

The broader market is cooperating today, with the Nasdaq-100 climbing 0.32% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.36%. The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is up 0.66%, suggesting that Plug Power's movement is at least partially riding the general market tide rather than company-specific enthusiasm.

Can Plug Power Actually Turn Things Around?

From a technical perspective, things look decidedly mixed. Plug Power is currently trading about 3% above its 20-day simple moving average, which signals some short-term strength. But it's sitting 3.6% below its 100-day SMA, highlighting longer-term struggles. Over the past year, shares have dropped roughly 20.91%, and they're hovering much closer to their 52-week lows than their highs. Not great.

The RSI is sitting at 54.73, which is pretty neutral territory—neither oversold nor overbought. Meanwhile, the MACD is above its signal line, which typically indicates bullish momentum. So you've got neutral RSI paired with a bullish MACD, which is finance-speak for "we have no idea what's happening next."

Key resistance to watch sits at $2.50. If the stock can clear that level with conviction, it might have room to run. Otherwise, expect more choppy trading.

What Wall Street Thinks About PLUG

Investors are eyeing the next earnings report, scheduled for March 2, 2026. Analysts are expecting revenue of $218.09 million, which would represent an increase from $191.47 million year-over-year. That's growth, at least on the top line.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Moves: The stock currently carries a Hold rating with an average price target of $2.40. Recent analyst activity tells the story of cautious optimism at best:

• Clear Street: Upgraded to Buy but lowered the price target to $3.00
• Canaccord Genuity: Hold rating with a $2.50 target
• Susquehanna: Neutral rating with a lowered target of $2.50

Notice a pattern? Even the bullish calls come with declining price targets. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

The Scorecard: Mixed Signals Everywhere

Looking at the broader picture for Plug Power, here's how things stack up:

• Momentum: Neutral — Current trends aren't giving strong signals in either direction.
• Quality: Neutral — The company's financial health is stable, though that's a low bar.
• Value: Risk — The stock appears overvalued compared to peers, which is concerning given the lack of profitability.

The Bottom Line: Plug Power's outlook is genuinely mixed. The stock shows stability but lacks the strong momentum or quality signals that would make it a compelling buy right now. For investors, that translates to caution.

ETF Exposure Worth Watching

Here's something interesting: Plug Power carries significant weight in several hydrogen-focused ETFs, which means fund flows can directly impact the stock price through automatic buying or selling. The key exposures include:

• Global X Hydrogen ETF (NASDAQ:HYDR): 11.28% weight
• Direxion Hydrogen ETF (NYSE:HJEN): 6.90% weight
• Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NASDAQ:NIXT): 1.37% weight

Why This Matters: When these ETFs see significant inflows or outflows, fund managers have to mechanically buy or sell PLUG shares to maintain the proper weighting. That can create price movements that have nothing to do with the company's fundamentals.

Where Things Stand Now

Current Price Action: At the time of publication Friday, Plug Power shares were trading at $2.33.

So where does that leave investors? With a stock that's shown it can pop on partnership news but faces skepticism from analysts who keep lowering their targets even as they maintain neutral-to-positive ratings. The debt refinancing is a positive step, and the Walmart relationship could lead somewhere interesting. But with shares down over 20% in the past year and trading well below longer-term averages, this remains a show-me story. The downgrade from TD Cowen is just the latest reminder that hydrogen's promise hasn't yet translated into Plug Power's profits.