Tim Cook has been steering Apple Inc. (AAPL) since 2011, racking up all-time highs and turning the company into a multi-trillion-dollar behemoth. But here's the thing about successful CEOs: eventually, they have to leave. And if recent reports are accurate, that "eventually" might arrive sooner than you think.

Meet the Heir Apparent

Finding someone to fill Cook's shoes won't be simple. You need someone who understands Apple's DNA, knows the products inside and out, and can manage everything from the next iPhone iteration to moonshot projects like foldable devices. Enter John Ternus.

A recent New York Times report positions Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, as the leading candidate to become the next CEO. And when you look at his resume, it makes a lot of sense.

Ternus has been at Apple since 2001, when he joined the Product Design team fresh out of college. That's roughly 25 years of institutional knowledge. He climbed the ladder quickly, becoming vice president of Hardware Engineering in 2013 after proving himself across multiple product launches and internal promotions.

Today, Ternus oversees all hardware engineering at Apple. According to the company's website: "John leads all hardware engineering, including the teams behind iPhone, iPad, Mac, AirPods, and more." He reports directly to Cook, which tells you everything about his position in the company hierarchy.

More recently, Ternus has been driving some of Apple's most strategic initiatives. He spearheaded development on the iPhone Air and pushed the company's transition to proprietary chips, reducing dependence on outside suppliers. Both moves represent exactly the kind of forward-thinking strategy Apple needs as it charts its next decade.

Oh, and there's another interesting parallel: Ternus is 50 years old, the exact age Cook was when he took over from Steve Jobs. He's got a mechanical engineering degree from the University of Pennsylvania, where he also swam on the varsity team.

When Is Cook Actually Leaving?

The rumors about Cook's departure have been picking up steam. A Financial Times report in 2025 suggested he could step down as early as 2026. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman thinks Cook will stick around through at least mid-2026, possibly longer.

At 65, Cook is definitely on the older end for tech executives. Sources told the New York Times that Cook has confided in senior leaders about wanting to lighten his workload in the coming years. The twist? Even if he steps down as CEO, he might not disappear entirely. Word is he could transition to chairman of Apple's board of directors, keeping some influence while passing the operational torch.

The Competition

While Ternus appears to be the favorite, Cook is reportedly grooming other potential successors as well. The bench includes some serious talent:

• Craig Federighi: head of software
• Eddy Cue: head of services
• Greg Joswiak: head of worldwide marketing
• Derdre O'Brien: head of retail and human resources

If you want to see how the smart money is betting, prediction markets offer some fascinating insights. On Kalshi, there's a 13% chance Cook leaves before July 2026 and a 52% chance he's gone before 2027. Basically, it's a coin flip whether he makes it to the end of 2026.

As for who replaces him, the Kalshi market shows:

• John Ternus: 76%
• Sri Santhanam: 17%
• Zongjian Chen: 8%

On Polymarket, the odds look similar:

• John Ternus: 80%
• Sabih Khan: 13%
• Craig Federighi: 11%
• Greg Joswiak: 8%

Ternus's odds jumped dramatically after the New York Times report dropped. Before that, he was hovering around 52-55% on both platforms. Keep in mind these markets have relatively low trading volume, so they can swing wildly based on news cycles.

What Kind of Leader Does Apple Need?

There's an interesting philosophical question lurking beneath all this succession planning: Does Apple want another Tim Cook, or does it want another Steve Jobs?

Cook brought operational excellence, steady growth, and predictability. Jobs brought audacious bets, design obsession, and a willingness to blow up profitable products to chase the next big thing. Ternus seems to fall somewhere in the Cook camp, with his deep knowledge of suppliers, attention to detail, and focus on execution.

That might be exactly what Apple needs. The company's stock hit new all-time highs in 2025, though it's worth noting that its 11.5% gain lagged behind the S&P 500's 16.6% rise and the Nasdaq 100's 20.4% jump. Among the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, Apple ranked fourth in performance.

But there's reason for optimism about 2026. Cook has hinted that the first quarter could break company records for both total revenue and iPhone revenue specifically. With Ternus deeply involved in key growth projects like the iPhone Air, proprietary chip development, and the foldable iPhone, he's positioned to drive the next phase of innovation.

How investors react to the eventual succession announcement could significantly influence Apple's stock trajectory. The question isn't just who takes over, but whether that person represents continuity or change. Right now, all signs point to Ternus offering investors more of what they've gotten under Cook: steady execution, product excellence, and measured innovation.

Which, if you're a shareholder who's enjoyed Apple's run over the past 14 years, probably sounds pretty good.