Iran is in the middle of nearly two weeks of chaos, and things are getting heated between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spent Friday trading threats and insults as protests spread across hundreds of Iranian cities, creating one of those geopolitical standoffs where everyone's watching to see who blinks first.

The Protests Keep Growing

Iran has been dealing with widespread unrest for 13 consecutive days now, with demonstrations popping up across the country as authorities scramble to shut down communications and suppress dissent. According to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, protests have been recorded at over 500 locations nationwide. The group reports at least 65 people killed and more than 2,300 arrested, though Iranian officials haven't released updated casualty figures.

The government has imposed a sweeping internet shutdown, making it nearly impossible to verify what's actually happening on the ground. Classic authoritarian playbook: when things get messy, cut the wifi.

Khamenei Goes After Trump

Iran's Supreme Leader didn't hold back, blaming the whole situation on foreign interference and accusing protesters of being U.S. agents. Then he went personal, targeting Trump directly in a series of posts on X.

"The US President who judges arrogantly about the whole world should know that tyrants & arrogant rulers of the world... saw their downfall when they were at the peak of their hubris," Khamenei wrote, adding, "He too will fall."

He compared Trump to historic rulers who got overthrown and dismissed the demonstrators as "rioters" and "hirelings." It's the kind of rhetoric you'd expect from a regime under pressure, doubling down on the foreign conspiracy angle.

Trump's Warning

Trump fired back with threats of his own, warning that further violence against protesters could trigger U.S. military action. "Iran's in big trouble," Trump said Friday at the White House. "If they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved — we'll be hitting them very hard where it hurts."

He made clear that wouldn't mean ground troops, though: "That doesn't mean boots on the ground." Trump also told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that Iran would "pay hell" if deaths continue, though he didn't spell out exactly what the U.S. might do.

The Exiled Prince Weighs In

Earlier this week, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, said millions of Iranians are demanding freedom. He accused the government of cutting off internet access, landlines, and potentially even satellite communications. He thanked Trump for "reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account" and urged European leaders to step up.

What Markets Think

Here's where it gets interesting from a markets perspective. Trading volume surged on a crypto-based prediction platform betting on whether Khamenei will be removed from power by January 31. Despite all the chaos and heightened interest, traders are assigning only about a 21% probability that Iran's supreme leader will fall this month. That reflects some serious skepticism that these protests will immediately topple the regime, even as the situation continues to deteriorate.

Which makes sense. Betting markets tend to be pretty cold-eyed about these things, and regime change is notoriously hard to predict. For now, at least, the smart money seems to think Khamenei's grip on power is shaky but not broken.