If you want to know what people really think might happen in geopolitics, apparently you should check the crypto betting markets. And right now, those markets are saying there's a decent chance the United States is about to strike Iran.

The Betting Market's Verdict

On Polymarket, the odds that America will strike Iran by January 16 jumped from 27% to 32% over the past day. That might not sound dramatic, but when you're talking about military intervention, a five-point move gets your attention.

The timeline matters here. The probability of a strike happening by the end of January sits at 48%, essentially a coin flip. Push that timeline out to March 31, and bettors are pricing in a 65% chance of it happening. Nearly $9 million has been wagered on this outcome, which tells you people are taking this seriously.

Here's how the market works: it resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian territory, including its embassies and consulates. The catch? Missiles or drones that get intercepted don't count. You have to actually hit something.

Meanwhile, the odds of a full ground invasion remain low, just 9% by January 31. Apparently even crypto bettors think there are limits to how far this might go.

Polymarket, which runs on Polygon (POL), has caught heat before for creating markets that essentially profit from conflicts and wars. The platform defends itself with a disclaimer claiming that "prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not" for people directly affected by such events. Make of that what you will.

What's Trump Thinking?

The betting activity comes as the Trump administration appears to be seriously considering its options. Senior officials from major national security agencies are expected to brief President Trump early next week on potential responses to the protests rocking Iran, according to The Washington Post.

Trump himself has been anything but subtle. On Truth Social, he posted that "Iran is looking at Freedom," adding that the United States stands ready to help. That's the kind of statement that tends to move betting markets.

For their part, Iranian officials have warned they'll retaliate against any U.S. aggression by striking American military bases throughout the Middle East. So there's your escalation scenario, spelled out pretty clearly by both sides.

The Human Cost

Behind all this geopolitical positioning and crypto betting, there's a real crisis unfolding. The protests in Iran have now stretched into their 15th day, and they're turning increasingly deadly.

According to Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based non-profit organization, at least 544 people have been killed in the protests. Another 10,600 have been detained over the two weeks of unrest. The BBC has independently confirmed at least 180 deaths.

Iranian state media reports that more than 100 members of its security forces have been killed during the demonstrations, which erupted over growing frustration with the collapsing national currency and soaring inflation. When people can't afford basic necessities, things tend to get volatile fast.

So while crypto traders are placing bets on military strikes, hundreds of families in Iran are dealing with very real consequences. It's worth remembering that behind every percentage point on Polymarket, there are actual people whose lives hang in the balance.