So here's a question you probably didn't have on your 2025 bingo card: What are the chances Trump actually takes control of Greenland? Turns out, crypto prediction markets have an answer, and it's not exactly bullish on American territorial expansion.

The Betting Markets Weigh In

On Polymarket, the odds that "Trump acquires Greenland before 2027" currently sit at 17%, roughly double the 9% probability from a week ago. Over $6 million has been wagered on this question, making it one of the hottest markets on the Polygon (POL)-based prediction platform. For the bet to resolve as "Yes," the U.S. would need to officially announce that Greenland falls under American sovereignty before the end of the year.

There's a related market asking whether the U.S. will take control of any land territory that's part of Greenland, and bettors peg those odds at 25%. Meanwhile, over on Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction market, traders see substantially higher odds at 46% that the U.S. will acquire at least a portion of Greenland.

The reason for all this betting action? The Trump administration has been sending some pretty serious signals. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Tuesday that acquiring Greenland, currently a Danish territory, is indeed a priority for Trump on national security grounds. She noted that the President and his team are weighing various strategies, and yes, that includes using the U.S. military, which remains "always an option."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said he takes Trump's comments about taking over Greenland seriously, pointing to the president's past behavior as reason enough to treat such statements as credible. Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen went further, warning that NATO's survival could be at risk if the U.S. deployed military force against Greenland.

Frederiksen had previously urged Trump to stop threatening to annex Greenland, emphasizing that both Denmark and Greenland are part of the Danish Kingdom and protected under NATO's collective defense guarantee. Which raises an awkward question: What happens when one NATO ally considers military action against another?

Mixed Messages and Rising Tensions

Some reports suggest that Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed congressional lawmakers about Trump's intention to purchase the island from Denmark without military intervention. So maybe the military talk is just negotiating tactics? Hard to say.

What's crystal clear is that Greenland's leadership wants no part of this. They've consistently rejected Trump's overtures, insisting that Greenland's future should be decided by Greenlanders. Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen and four party leaders issued a statement Friday declaring: "We don't want to be Americans, we don't want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders."

Prime Minister Frederiksen has doubled down on her warning that NATO's survival would be in jeopardy if the U.S. uses military force against Greenland. An attack on Greenland, a semiautonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, would essentially mean one NATO ally attacking another, a move she says would effectively destroy the alliance.

Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Communications Director, also voiced strong opposition to any potential invasion, warning it could shatter the trust architecture underpinning U.S. alliances and boomerang back on American financial conditions.

So will it happen? The smart money on crypto prediction markets says probably not, but the odds keep creeping up. And in a world where we're betting on geopolitical annexations using cryptocurrency, who really knows anymore?