Good morning to everyone watching the screens today. We're into the second full week of January 2026, and if you were hoping for a data-heavy day to anchor your trading decisions, you're out of luck. The economic calendar is practically empty, which means price action will likely be driven by positioning, sentiment, and whatever the Fed speakers decide to tell us.

The only scheduled event worth noting is a 3 Year Note Auction at 11:30 AM ET, which could move rate-sensitive assets depending on how demand shapes up and where yields settle. Beyond that, there's no major data to give markets direction early in the session.

Instead, the focus shifts to a parade of Federal Reserve officials. Raphael Bostic will moderate a discussion at 12:30 PM ET, followed by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 12:45 PM ET. Then, later in the evening at 6:00 PM ET, New York Fed President John Williams delivers a keynote address. Any hints about the inflation outlook or rate trajectory could shape expectations and spark volatility, especially with traders already on edge.

And speaking of edge, markets are also processing news that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. That's not exactly the kind of headline that inspires calm, orderly trading. With limited hard data and plenty of headline risk, expect price action to be choppy and reactive throughout the session.

So let's talk about where the major indexes and mega-cap tech names might be headed based on technical levels.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY is trading around 690.25 right now, which has become a short-term balance area after last week's macro-driven volatility shook things up. If buyers can hold this zone, we could see a rotation higher into 691.75, where traders will watch closely to see if demand holds against minor supply pressure. If that level gives way to strength, the next stop would be 693.50, with a more aggressive push potentially reaching 695.25 as momentum builds. These upside levels would signal that buyers are regaining confidence and pressing into higher value territory.

On the flip side, if SPY can't maintain support around 690.25, sellers will likely test downside liquidity near 688.75. A breakdown through that area opens the door to 687.25, where buyers will need to step in quickly to prevent further slippage. Continued weakness could drag the index into 685.50, with a more aggressive downside scenario potentially probing toward 683.75 if selling accelerates. These lower levels represent areas where buyers previously showed interest, so a lack of response could lead to sharper intraday swings.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

QQQ is hovering near 622.00, trying to stabilize after recent volatility tied to rate expectations and growth stock sensitivity. If the tech-heavy index can hold above this level, we might see a push into 623.75, followed by a test of 625.50 if buyers sustain momentum. Continued strength could allow QQQ to rotate into 627.25, which would signal improving risk appetite within the technology sector. A really strong session could even stretch toward 629.00 if buyers press their advantage.

If QQQ loses support near 622.00, sellers will likely move quickly to test 620.50 as downside momentum builds. A break below that level could bring 618.75 into focus, where buyers will need to defend aggressively. Failure there might result in a slide toward 616.50, with additional weakness opening the door to 614.75. These levels highlight areas where downside pressure could accelerate if confidence fades.

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently trading around 259.50, a level where buyers are attempting to steady the ship following broader market fluctuations. If support holds here, the stock could begin working higher into 260.75, with continued strength allowing a move toward 262.00. A more constructive tape could carry Apple into 263.25, signaling that buyers are regaining control and absorbing overhead supply. These incremental moves would suggest improving sentiment within large-cap tech.

If Apple can't hold 259.50, sellers may start pressing price toward 258.25. A decisive move lower could expose 257.00, where prior demand will be tested. Continued selling pressure may drag the stock into 255.75, and if buyers fail to respond, Apple could slip toward 254.25. These downside levels represent zones where momentum could accelerate if bids thin out.

Microsoft Corp.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is trading near 476.25, and buyers will be watching closely to see if this level can act as a near-term floor. Holding here may allow price to lift into 478.00, with follow-through momentum pushing toward 479.75. If buyers stay engaged, Microsoft could rotate into 481.50, reflecting renewed interest in large-cap leadership. A stronger advance may target 483.25 if broader market conditions remain supportive.

If MSFT breaks below 476.25, sellers may guide price into 474.75. Continued weakness could extend into 473.25, where downside momentum may build. A lack of buyer response could open the door toward 471.50, with deeper selling potentially probing into 469.75. These levels are critical because they mark areas where buyers previously attempted to defend the tape.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is trading around 183.00, a level that has become an important short-term pivot for both buyers and sellers. Holding above this zone could allow a push into 184.75, with additional strength bringing 186.50 into view. If momentum improves across the semiconductor space, NVIDIA may extend toward 188.25, reflecting renewed confidence after recent digestion. These upside levels would suggest buyers are willing to step back in aggressively.

If NVIDIA loses support near 183.00, sellers may begin probing into 181.75. A break there could invite a move toward 180.25, where buyers will need to respond to slow further downside. Continued selling pressure may pull the stock into 178.75, with a deeper flush potentially testing 177.00. These areas matter because momentum can accelerate quickly in either direction if bids disappear.

Alphabet Inc Class A

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) is trading near 325.25, with buyers attempting to maintain structure following recent strength. A hold above this level could spark a move into 327.00, followed by a test of 328.75 if momentum builds. Sustained buying may allow Alphabet to rotate into 330.50, signaling steady accumulation rather than aggressive chasing.

If 325.25 fails to hold, sellers may push price into 323.75. Continued weakness could extend into 322.25, where buyers will need to step in to prevent further deterioration. A breakdown below that zone could open a path toward 320.50, with additional downside probing into 318.75 if pressure persists.

Meta Platforms Inc

Meta Platforms Inc (META) is trading around 647.25, where buyers are attempting to stabilize after recent volatility. Holding this area could allow price to climb into 649.50, with continued strength targeting 651.75. If risk appetite improves, Meta may push into 654.00, reflecting renewed confidence in growth-oriented names. These upside rotations would suggest buyers are slowly reclaiming control.

If Meta slips below 647.25, sellers may test 645.00 early in the session. A failure there could bring 642.75 into play, with additional downside extending into 640.50. If selling accelerates, price may probe toward 638.25, marking a deeper retracement zone where buyers would need to reengage.

Tesla Inc.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is trading near 441.00, a level that has acted as a short-term balance point. Holding above this area could allow price to push into 443.50, with continued momentum targeting 446.00. If buyers maintain pressure, Tesla may extend into 448.75, signaling renewed interest in the name despite broader market uncertainty.

If Tesla fails to hold 441.00, sellers may press price into 438.75. Continued weakness could drag the stock into 436.50, with further selling potentially testing 434.25. A deeper move could probe toward 432.00 if buyers remain sidelined, making these downside levels important to monitor closely.

The Bottom Line

Today's session is likely to be driven more by sentiment and Fed commentary than by hard data. With headline risk elevated and the calendar light, price action could be uneven and reactive. Traders should stay disciplined, remain flexible, and manage risk carefully in what could be a choppy environment. Watch those technical levels closely and be prepared to adjust as conditions shift.