Here's an idea that sounds almost too simple: what if we could boost the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars just by eating better? That's the pitch from Dr. Mehmet Oz, who now runs the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and it turns out the math behind it is more interesting than you might think.

The Trillion-Dollar Year

Speaking at a White House press conference this week, Oz laid out a straightforward economic argument. Americans currently retire at an average age of 61. If better health meant people could work just one additional year before retiring, he said it would "increase the overall GDP of our nation by trillions of dollars."

The logic goes like this: healthier people work longer, productive workers generate economic output, and that output compounds across millions of Americans. "We will reduce healthcare expenses," Oz explained. "At the same time, we jazz up the U.S. economy with trillions of dollars created by the productivity of American workers."

It's a two-for-one deal: spend less on treating sick people while simultaneously getting more economic production from healthy ones. Whether you find that inspiring or slightly depressing probably depends on how you feel about working an extra year.

The Real Cost of Bad Diets

Oz backed up his argument with some eye-opening numbers from his own agency. About 30% of Medicare spending, roughly $300 billion every year, is directly connected to obesity. That's not a small line item. "If we were to affect obesity by 10%, which is an incredibly conservative and justifiable assumption... just that alone is $30 billion of reduction of expenses for Medicare," he said.

The Trump administration recently updated its dietary guidelines to emphasize whole foods, proteins, and healthy fats while cutting back on ultraprocessed foods and added sugar. Oz praised these changes as a way to reduce dependence on expensive medications. "The best way to reduce drug spend in America is to not need the drugs in the first place," he said, pointing specifically to pricey GLP-1 drugs and autoimmune treatments that become necessary when chronic diseases develop.

His soundbite: "You can't be a wealthy nation without being a healthy nation."

Starting Young

Oz emphasized the importance of reaching children early in life, noting that 53% of U.S. children are covered by Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program. Teaching families how to implement the new dietary guidelines, he argued, "will dramatically change the natural history of how children are able to participate in life."

Translation: fix eating habits when kids are young, and you might prevent decades of chronic disease down the road.

The Upfront Investment Problem

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined Oz at the press conference and highlighted the challenge of paying now to save later. Reducing healthcare costs requires upfront investments in education and access to healthy food, he said. "The idea that a cheap meal made of processed food is cheap is an illusion, because you're paying for it on the back end," Kennedy explained. "You're paying for it with diabetes, with obesity, with illness."

It's the classic long-term investment problem: the benefits come later, but the costs come now. That's a hard sell politically, but it's also how most worthwhile investments work. You spend money today on something that pays dividends over time, whether that's education, infrastructure, or teaching people to eat vegetables.

The question, as always, is whether we're willing to make that trade.