So much for the Santa Claus rally. It fizzled before it started, but the major indexes still finished 2025 looking pretty good. The NASDAQ climbed roughly 20%, the S&P 500 gained about 16%, and the Dow Jones brought up the rear at 13% but powered through the final stretch exactly as seasonal patterns suggested it would.

That late-year Dow strength? Not surprising if you were paying attention to seasonal trends. The index was always going to lag early and finish strong. It's what the pattern called for, and that's precisely what happened.

Which naturally raises the question: what does all this tell us about where we're headed in 2026?

From a pattern and seasonal standpoint, there's definitely opportunity ahead. But this isn't a "close your eyes and throw darts" kind of market. Some sectors are working beautifully, others are limping along, and the difference between winning and losing comes down to proper timing and respecting the patterns.

The Sectors Actually Working Right Now

Large-Cap Technology and Index Leadership

The clearest strength in the market remains concentrated at the top.

The NASDAQ didn't just outperform the S&P and Dow in 2025, it maintained a trend structure that's holding up as we move into early 2026. From a rules-based perspective, this signals that institutional money continues flowing toward scale, liquidity, and companies with durable earnings.

That doesn't mean every tech stock with a decent story is going to work. But broad index exposure and mega-cap leaders are still doing most of the heavy lifting in this market.

Precious Metals

Gold and silver quietly delivered some of the best performances of 2025, which is particularly impressive considering they already posted solid gains the year before.

That sustained strength aligns with two macro patterns worth watching closely: a weakening U.S. dollar and a bond market that's stuck in a comfortable middle range instead of breaking down or overheating.

As long as the dollar stays under pressure, precious metals remain relevant throughout 2026.

But that strength isn't universal across the market. Some sectors are still struggling to find their footing.

The Sectors Still Stuck in Neutral

Housing and Real Estate

Housing-related stocks continue to underperform. Homebuilders and real estate names remain highly sensitive to interest rate movements, and the charts aren't showing any signs of leadership emerging.

Until that changes in a meaningful way, this sector stays firmly on the defensive watch list.

Energy (At Least For Now)

Despite significant geopolitical developments, particularly around Venezuela, oil and energy stocks haven't confirmed any bullish pattern yet.

Headlines alone don't make a trade signal, no matter how dramatic they sound.

From a seasonal perspective, oil typically doesn't begin its reliable upward move until mid-February at the earliest. The stronger historical window runs from February through May. Until that seasonal timing aligns properly, energy remains a sector to watch rather than chase.

When you dig deeper into the patterns, a handful of specific stocks and ETFs rise to the top of the opportunity list.

The Specific Names Worth Watching

Visa Inc. (V)

Visa presents one of the cleanest seasonal setups heading into the first quarter.

Over the past decade, Visa has averaged nearly a 6% move between late December and mid-February, and that pattern has actually improved in recent years.

If you're trading stocks, this is the type of setup where owning shares now and reassessing around mid-February makes good sense. For options traders, February call spreads offer a way to target that 5-6% move without taking on unnecessary risk.

This is a timing trade, not a set-it-and-forget-it position.

Mastercard Inc. (MA)

Mastercard has started firming up from a technical perspective. The downtrend broke, momentum shifted higher, and the stock is now trading within a much cleaner support-and-resistance range.

This kind of setup doesn't require a massive breakout to generate returns. It's more about capturing a defined, predictable move.

That makes it a strong candidate for defined-risk bullish strategies like call spreads, where you're building the trade around a projected move rather than hoping for a runaway rally.

NASDAQ-Linked Exchange-Traded Funds

When you step back and look at where leadership has actually been concentrated, it keeps pointing back to the NASDAQ. It led throughout 2025, and the trend structure continues pointing higher as we move into 2026.

If you don't want to bet everything on individual stock selection, this is where broad exposure makes perfect sense, especially during seasonally favorable periods. Something like the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) simply offers a way to stay aligned with what's working without needing to be perfect on picking individual names.

Oil Stocks

The crisis developing in Venezuela might have triggered a rush into oil stocks, but the actual price action told a completely different story.

Several major energy names spiked overnight and then promptly sold off—a textbook sell-the-news reaction. From both a trend and seasonal standpoint, there's no meaningful January pattern and no compelling early-February setup to rely on.

Until the mid-February seasonal window comes into play, chasing oil strength remains high risk. That's especially true for stocks like Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and funds like the United States Oil Fund (USO).

So where does all of this leave us as we head into 2026?

The market is still trending higher overall, but it's no longer forgiving mistakes or rewarding guesswork.

And here's something worth remembering: we're in an extremely rare market cycle with a non-consecutive second-term president. In fact, we've only seen this once before in U.S. history. That fact alone throws the entire presidential cycle playbook into question.

This isn't a market where you can afford to guess or chase momentum blindly.

It's a market where you wait for the pattern to reveal itself clearly—and then you act decisively.