Here's a sentence you don't hear every day from a fast-casual CEO: we're not losing to our competitors, we're losing to the produce aisle. But that's exactly what Chipotle's Scott Boatwright told analysts during the company's October earnings call, and it points to something more interesting than just a burrito problem.

"We're not losing them to the competition," Boatwright explained. "We're losing them to grocery and food at home."

The 25-35 Crowd Is Feeling the Squeeze

The shift is most pronounced among customers aged 25 to 35, who represent about a quarter of Chipotle's business. This group is getting hit from multiple angles: unemployment worries, student loan payments resuming, and wage growth that's not keeping pace with inflation. When budgets tighten, restaurant meals become an obvious cut.

"They feel the pinch," Boatwright said simply. "We feel the pullback from them as well."

But the pressure extends well beyond millennials and Gen Z. Households earning under $100,000 annually account for roughly 40% of Chipotle's sales, and they've pulled back on dining frequency even more dramatically. Boatwright described it as "a broad-based pullback in frequency" and "slowing transaction trends" affecting the entire business.

When Six Figures Isn't What It Used to Be

What makes this particularly striking is what's happening further up the income ladder. A $100,000 household income used to feel like a comfortable benchmark—enough to cover the basics with room for occasional indulgences. Not anymore.

According to the Income Paradox Survey from November 2025, conducted by The Harris Poll, 41% of households earning $100,000 or more say they're either currently skipping meals or planning to in order to make ends meet. Think about that for a second. These aren't low-income families struggling with food insecurity. These are households that, on paper, should have plenty of breathing room.

It helps explain why grocery stores are winning share from restaurants across the board. Even households that look financially comfortable are reassessing everyday spending, choosing control over convenience and home cooking over dining out. Chipotle might be cheaper than many fast-casual competitors, but when household budgets get tight, the real comparison isn't Chipotle versus Panera—it's eating out versus buying groceries.

No Discount Strategy in Sight

Despite the headwinds, Boatwright made one thing crystal clear: Chipotle won't start slashing prices to chase traffic. "Value as a price point is not and will not be a Chipotle strategy," he stated firmly.

Instead, the company plans to double down on execution, menu innovation, and better communicating the value it already offers. Boatwright pointed out that Chipotle's pricing has tracked closer to grocery prices than to other restaurant chains, and that its meals remain 20-30% cheaper than many competitors. The goal is to position Chipotle as an affordable option—even as consumers fundamentally rethink what "affordable" actually means.

Interestingly, Boatwright also emphasized that this isn't about losing market share to competitors. "It shows we are gaining market share," he told analysts. Chipotle isn't hemorrhaging customers to Taco Bell or Qdoba. People still prefer Chipotle when they eat out—they're just eating out less often.

A Bigger Economic Signal

This situation extends well beyond the restaurant industry. When households earning six figures are skipping meals and cooking more at home, it signals that economic pressure points have fundamentally shifted. Income alone no longer guarantees financial comfort, especially when housing costs, food prices, and debt obligations consume ever-larger shares of take-home pay.

The reality is that many households need better financial planning, not just higher incomes. Understanding cash flow, prioritizing spending, and building strategies around long-term goals can make the difference between feeling financially stressed and financially stable—even at the same income level.

Boatwright framed the current moment as an opportunity to refocus rather than panic. The company is working to "get back to consistent share gains" as economic conditions eventually stabilize.

But the broader message is clear: right now, the toughest competition for restaurants isn't another chain down the street. It's the household budget itself. And for Chipotle, that means the real fight isn't happening in food courts—it's happening in kitchen pantries across America.