Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced back from late-November lows, but don't expect fireworks anytime soon. Bitfinex is sounding a note of caution about near-term price action, even as the exchange keeps a constructive view for 2026.

The Supply Zone Problem

According to Bitfinex's latest analysis, Bitcoin is now entering what traders call a dense supply zone, roughly between $92,100 and $117,400. This is where things get interesting in a not-so-exciting way. In this range, a lot of earlier buyers are sitting at or near breakeven, and many of them will likely take the opportunity to sell and get out whole. That creates overhead resistance, and it means Bitcoin will need sustained spot demand to chew through all that supply before it can break out convincingly.

A Cleaner Slate, But Still Range-Bound

The year-end reset in derivatives markets has cleared out legacy positions, which sounds good on paper. It's created what Bitfinex describes as a cleaner setup with cautious optimism. Traders are positioning for longer-dated upside while hedging short-term downside, and volatility is compressed though gradually firming. Still, geopolitical uncertainty and mixed spot ETF flows are keeping Bitcoin range-bound for now.

Macro Backdrop Reinforces Patience

The macro picture isn't screaming "buy crypto" either. U.S. economic data shows slowing but resilient growth, with hiring on pause, productivity rising, and the Federal Reserve expected to sit tight in the near term. A narrowing trade deficit driven by falling imports suggests softer consumption and uneven momentum overall.

Meanwhile, crypto markets are quietly moving toward deeper institutional integration. Regulatory developments in the U.S. and Japan point to clearer oversight, exchange-based access, and tighter links between stablecoins and traditional banking. That's laying the foundation for the next phase of digital asset adoption, even if Bitcoin has to digest near-term supply pressure first.