Apple Breaks Through After Years of Tie

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has finally done it. For the first time since 2011, the tech giant stands alone at the top of the global smartphone market, according to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research. No tie with Samsung this time—just outright victory.

The company's stock has climbed 11.5% in 2025, though that's actually lagged behind several major market indexes. But here's the thing: fresh smartphone market data suggests Apple's first-quarter financials could change that narrative pretty quickly.

Global smartphone shipments grew 2% year-over-year in 2025, marking the second consecutive year of growth. Apple didn't just participate in that growth—it turbocharged past it. The company grabbed a 20% market share, edging out Samsung (SSNLF) at 19%. That might sound like a small gap, but it's the first clear separation after years of dead heats where both companies held identical shares of 19% in 2023 and 18% in 2024.

The Competitive Landscape

Here's how the top five global smartphone manufacturers stacked up, with their year-over-year growth rates:

1. Apple: 20% market share, +10% year-over-year
2. Samsung: 19% market share, +5% year-over-year
3. Xiaomi: 13% market share, no change
4. Vivo: 8% market share, +3% year-over-year
5. Oppo: 8% market share, -4% year-over-year

Apple didn't just lead in market share—it dominated in growth rate, too. The company's 10% year-over-year expansion was five times faster than the overall market and double Samsung's growth.

"In 2025, the smartphone market continued its gradual shift toward higher price tiers, driven by consumers upgrading to premium devices," said Shilpi Jain, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

That shift played right into Apple's wheelhouse. The premium smartphone maker benefited from growth in Japan, the Middle East, and Asia, which helped offset weakness in more mature markets.

iPhone 17 and iPhone 16 Drive the Victory

Apple's climb to the top wasn't just about brand loyalty—it was about product execution. The iPhone 17 launch gave the company serious momentum in the fourth quarter, while the iPhone 16 continued to perform exceptionally well in key growth markets.

"The iPhone 17 series gained significant traction in Q4, while the iPhone 16 continued to perform exceptionally well in Japan, India and Southeast Asia," said Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

Mishra highlighted that Apple's product mix supported "rising demand across emerging and mid-size markets"—exactly where the growth opportunities are hiding these days.

The fourth quarter was particularly impressive. Global smartphone shipments grew just 1% year-over-year in Q4, but Apple captured a record 25% market share during the period. Samsung came in second at 17%. That's a substantial gap.

Interestingly, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), which makes Google Pixel phones, didn't crack the top five globally but still posted a solid 25% year-over-year gain in shipments.

What This Means for Upcoming Earnings

The strong calendar fourth quarter sets up Apple nicely for its fiscal first-quarter earnings report, expected later this month. That fiscal quarter covers October, November, and December 2025—the exact period where Apple dominated the global market.

Apple already set multiple company records in its fiscal fourth quarter, which included September and early iPhone 17 results. CEO Tim Cook made it clear he expects even better numbers in the first quarter.

"We are incredibly excited about the strength we're seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter's revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone," Cook said.

Apple CFO Kevin Parekh put some numbers behind Cook's optimism, projecting total company revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year for the December quarter. That would represent the company's best quarter ever.

Apple reported revenue of $124.30 billion in last year's first quarter, which was a company record at the time. The projected 10% to 12% growth would push this year's first-quarter revenue to somewhere between $136.73 billion and $139.22 billion. Analysts are currently estimating $138.31 billion, right in the middle of that range.

Parekh also said the first quarter would be "our best iPhone quarter ever," with iPhone revenue expected to grow by double digits year-over-year. Last year's first quarter saw iPhone revenue of $69.14 billion. Even at the low end of a 10% growth rate, that would push iPhone revenue above $76 billion this time around. For context, Apple's fourth quarter generated $49.02 billion in iPhone revenue.

The Bottom Line

The Counterpoint Research data essentially validates everything Cook and Parekh said about iPhone strength in late 2025. Apple didn't just gain market share—it accelerated past the entire market while its closest competitor fell further behind.

With a record 25% market share in the fourth quarter and strong performance across emerging markets, Apple's upcoming first-quarter results could easily exceed analyst expectations. The smartphone market data suggests there's genuine upside potential here, not just management optimism.

Apple stock may have underperformed major indexes so far in 2025, but if the company delivers on its projected record-breaking quarter, that gap might start closing pretty quickly.