If you want a real-time temperature check on geopolitical anxiety, crypto prediction markets might be your new go-to. Bettors on Polymarket, the blockchain-based betting platform, now put the odds of a US military strike against Iran this month at over 50%, a notable jump that coincides with an urgent American evacuation advisory.

The Numbers Behind the Betting

The probability of a US strike on Iran by January 31 has climbed to 54%, rising 9 percentage points in just 24 hours. For those tracking the near-term outlook, the odds of action by January 23 surged even more dramatically, from 29% to 43%.

There's real money behind these predictions. Roughly $13.7 million has been wagered on this particular market. The bet resolves to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile or air strike on Iranian territory, including embassies and consulates. The fine print matters here: intercepted missiles or drones don't count.

Polymarket operates on Polygon (POL) and has previously drawn criticism for hosting betting markets that essentially profit from conflicts and wars. Meanwhile, a separate market puts the odds of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being removed from power this month at just 20%.

Why the Sudden Urgency

The betting surge follows a stark warning from the US virtual embassy in Iran, urging Americans to leave immediately as anti-regime protests enter their 16th day.

"U.S. nationals are at significant risk of questioning, arrest, and detention in Iran. Showing a U.S. passport or demonstrating connections to the United States can be reason enough for Iranian authorities to detain someone," the advisory stated.

The virtual embassy serves as Washington's official diplomatic channel to Iran, given the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the countries.

The human toll is mounting. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based nonprofit, at least 656 people have been killed in the protests, including 505 protesters.

Iran maintains that foreign forces are orchestrating the unrest, which originally erupted over currency devaluation and soaring inflation. The Trump administration is reportedly weighing various responses, including military action. Tehran has signaled it's prepared for war but also open to negotiations.