President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Monday to paint a pretty grim picture of what could happen if the Supreme Court doesn't side with him on tariffs. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars in refunds, potentially ballooning into the trillions. His conclusion? The country would be, in his words, in serious trouble.
Here's the basic argument: The federal government has collected a massive amount of tariff revenue under Trump's policies. If the Supreme Court says those tariffs were illegal, the government might have to give that money back. But it gets more complicated. Trump points out that foreign companies have invested huge sums building factories and facilities in the U.S. specifically to avoid paying those tariffs. If courts decide those investments are somehow tied to refund calculations, the math gets ugly fast.
"It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay," Trump wrote. He added that figuring out who gets paid, how much, and when could take years, if it's even possible at all.
Trump characterized the whole situation as deeply complex, pushing back against anyone suggesting this could be resolved quickly or simply. "If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, we're s****d!" he declared.
Where Things Stand Now
The cases challenging Trump's tariffs come from affected businesses and a group of 12 states, mostly led by Democratic officials. The Supreme Court hasn't ruled yet, but prediction markets are giving Trump decent odds: a 75% chance of winning. Not everyone agrees though. Anthony Scaramucci put the chances of the Court striking down the tariffs at 70%.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a different perspective. He said the Treasury has enough money on hand to cover potential refunds if the ruling goes against Trump, and that any payments could be spread out over several weeks or possibly up to a year. That's a notably calmer take than the president's.
Trump has been vocal about this issue before, warning of an "economic emergency" and major stock market turbulence if the Court doesn't rule in his favor. For now, everyone's waiting to see which way the justices lean.