Bill Gates is still optimistic about the future. But this time around, he's bringing receipts—and a few warnings.
In his latest annual letter published on GatesNotes last week, the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist calls it "optimism with footnotes." The biggest footnote? Artificial intelligence, and the sweeping impact it's already having on how we work.
"AI capabilities will allow us to make far more goods and services with less labor," Gates wrote. "We're already starting to see the impact of AI on the job market, and I think this impact will grow over the next five years."
Gates isn't speculating about some distant sci-fi future here. He's pointing to shifts happening right now, particularly in software development. AI tools have doubled productivity for many developers and dramatically reduced the cost of writing code. Automation in warehouses and customer service centers hasn't caught up quite yet, but Gates expects those sectors to feel the heat as AI continues improving.
Then comes the real headline moment: "As AI delivers on its potential, we could reduce the work week or even decide there are some areas we don't want to use AI in."
The idea of shortening the workweek to absorb labor disruption isn't exactly new. Economists and futurists have floated it for years. But when Bill Gates frames it as a genuine near-term possibility, it signals something bigger: traditional labor markets might not be able to keep pace with AI's breakneck evolution.
Preparing for Change, Not Picking Policies
"Even if the transition takes longer than I expect," Gates wrote, "we should use 2026 to prepare ourselves for these changes—including which policies will best help spread the wealth and deal with the important role jobs play in our society."
Notably, Gates doesn't endorse universal basic income or any specific redistribution plan. He leaves the path forward intentionally open, acknowledging that "different political parties will likely suggest different approaches." His focus is less on prescribing solutions and more on managing the risks that come with rapid technological change.
And those risks go beyond job loss. In a line that echoes his famous 2015 TED talk about pandemic preparedness, Gates warns that one of the greatest near-term dangers isn't unemployment or rogue robots—it's bioterrorism.
"An even greater risk than a naturally caused pandemic is that a non-government group will use open source AI tools to design a bioterrorism weapon," he wrote. He's calling for more deliberate global governance around how AI develops and gets deployed.
The Upside Is Real Too
Despite the concerns, Gates remains bullish on AI's potential. He sees breakthroughs coming in personalized education, healthcare access, and agricultural innovation—all of which could reduce inequality if governments and institutions are willing to scale solutions beyond what the free market alone can deliver.
"Always-available, high-quality medical advice will improve medicine by every measure," Gates wrote. He points to AI's ability to reach patients in remote areas who otherwise wouldn't have access to expert care.
But none of this happens automatically. "Of all the things humans have ever created, AI will change society the most," Gates wrote. "It will help solve many of our current problems while also bringing new challenges very different from past innovations."