AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) is giving back some gains Tuesday as the satellite communications darling consolidates near all-time highs following an absolutely blistering rally in 2025. If you've been watching this stock, you know it's been one wild ride.

Can This Rally Keep Going Despite Analyst Skepticism?

Space stocks are having a moment right now. The broader sector is catching momentum from supportive policy dynamics under the Trump administration and some genuine technical achievements across the industry. That's created a pretty favorable backdrop for companies like AST SpaceMobile.

But here's the tension: AST SpaceMobile has become one of the most polarizing retail favorites heading into 2026. Shares are consolidating around $91–$100 after that massive 260% rally throughout 2025. Meanwhile, some institutional analysts are pumping the brakes. Scotiabank dropped a downgrade to Sector Underperform last week, citing what they see as extreme valuation multiples. So you've got retail enthusiasm running headlong into institutional caution.

The Numbers Behind This Extraordinary Run

Let's talk about what the charts are saying. The stock is currently trading 18.5% above its 20-day simple moving average and a pretty striking 45.4% above its 100-day SMA. That demonstrates serious strength in both the short-term and longer-term picture. Over the past 12 months, shares have rocketed up 352.77%, and they're sitting much closer to their 52-week highs than their lows.

The technical setup is interesting. The RSI is sitting at 63.23, which is pretty much neutral territory—not overbought, not oversold. But the MACD is above its signal line, which indicates bullish momentum. So you've got this mixed momentum picture where the trend looks strong, but the stock isn't screaming "overbought" just yet.

The key resistance level to watch is $103.00. If the stock can punch through that ceiling, it could be off to the races again.

Earnings on the Horizon Could Change Everything

Investors are circling March 2 on their calendars—that's when the next earnings report drops. Here's what Wall Street is expecting:

• EPS Estimate: Loss of 19 cents per share (compared to a loss of 18 cents in the year-ago period)
• Revenue Estimate: $39.03 million (up from just $1.92 million year-over-year)

That revenue projection is the real story. We're talking about a potential jump from under $2 million to nearly $40 million. That's the kind of growth that gets people excited, even if the company is still losing money.

What Analysts Are Saying: The consensus rating is Hold with an average price target of $61.08—which, let's be honest, is way below where the stock is currently trading. Recent analyst activity includes:

• B. Riley Securities: Upgraded to Neutral with a raised target of $105.00
• Scotiabank: Downgraded to Sector Underperform with a target of $45.60
• Scotiabank: Also issued a Sector Perform rating with the same $45.60 target

Notice the wide range of opinions here. That's what happens with high-flying growth stocks—some analysts see the potential, others see a valuation bubble waiting to pop.

Market Data Rankings Tell an Interesting Story

Looking at market data for AST SpaceMobile, here's what stands out:

• Momentum: Bullish (Score: 98.89 out of 100)—The stock is absolutely crushing the broader market on this metric.

The Bottom Line: The data reveals a classic "High-Flyer" setup. While that momentum score of 98.89 confirms the strong trend is real, investors should stay cautious given those extreme valuation multiples that analysts keep highlighting. Momentum can carry a stock far beyond what fundamentals suggest, but it can also reverse quickly.

ETF Holdings Worth Watching

If you're tracking ASTS, you should know about its ETF exposure:

• Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF (GSEW): 0.25% weight
• Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (EQAL): 1.04% weight
• iShares US Telecommunications ETF (IYZ): 4.61% weight

Why This Matters: That 4.61% weight in IYZ is particularly significant. When a stock carries that much weight in a fund, any major inflows or outflows to the ETF will force automatic buying or selling of the underlying stock. It creates a technical dynamic that can amplify moves in either direction.

Price Action

Current Trading: AST SpaceMobile shares were down 3.05% at $95.41 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to MarketDash data.