The semiconductor world is experiencing a supply squeeze of historic proportions, and it's all about who gets first dibs on memory chips. Spoiler alert: if you're building AI data centers, you're winning. If you're making smartphones or PCs, you're probably on a waitlist.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh just got back from Asia, and his findings are reshaping how Wall Street thinks about semiconductor winners and losers heading into 2026. The short version? Hyperscalers are aggressively buying up memory capacity to fuel what they expect to be a 50% surge in data center bit growth next year, and that's creating serious ripple effects across the entire chip industry.

Memory Prices Are Climbing Fast

Here's what's happening on the ground. Hyperscalers are locking in DRAM and NAND supply contracts well in advance, essentially pre-ordering massive quantities before anyone else can get their hands on them. The result is predictable: prices are climbing sharply.

Vinh's data shows DRAM contract prices jumping roughly 25% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another 10% to 12% increase in the second quarter. NAND pricing isn't far behind, with a 20% bump expected in Q1 2026 and another 10% to 15% in Q2.

Meanwhile, outside the privileged world of data centers, things look considerably bleaker. PC and smartphone manufacturers are scrambling to secure supply, with fulfillment rates running at just 20% to 45% of what they actually need. That's not a typo. Some OEMs are getting less than half of what they forecasted, which means either higher prices, lower volumes, or both.

Intel and AMD Get the Upgrade Treatment

This supply dynamic is behind some notable analyst moves. Vinh upgraded both Intel Corp (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) to Overweight, arguing that both companies are essentially sold out of server CPU capacity for 2026. He's expecting potential price increases of 10% to 15% in the first quarter of next year as demand overwhelms available supply.

The bullishness extends to memory maker Micron Technology Inc (MU), where Vinh raised his price target to $450 from $325. That's a substantial jump reflecting the tight supply environment and pricing power that memory manufacturers now enjoy.

Vinh also maintained positive views on the usual AI infrastructure suspects, raising estimates for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (MPWR), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), Cirrus Logic Inc (CRUS), Lattice Semiconductor Corp (LSCC), Analog Devices Inc (ADI), and others that stand to benefit from relentless AI compute and infrastructure buildouts.

The Custom Silicon Battle Heats Up

Beyond memory, custom silicon is emerging as another critical battleground for hyperscalers trying to differentiate their AI capabilities and reduce dependence on off-the-shelf solutions.

For Broadcom (AVGO), the numbers tell an impressive story. The company's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) supply allocation for 2026 increased to 250,000 units from 190,000, representing a roughly 30% upward revision and a massive 250% jump compared to 2025 levels. That surge reflects scaling TPU programs and growing hyperscaler appetite for custom chips.

Even more intriguing, Vinh expects OpenAI to emerge as Broadcom's sixth major customer for custom ASICs. While the timeline has shifted to the first quarter of 2027, the analyst still sees a massive lifetime unit opportunity in the range of 1.5 million to 2 million chips. If that materializes, it would add $8 billion to $10 billion on top of Broadcom's already substantial $73 billion AI backlog.

Marvell (MRVL) is also positioned to benefit from outsized data center demand, though Vinh noted some uncertainty around the MTIA V3.5 design win. He said it looks less certain than last quarter, though Marvell remains in contention alongside MediaTek. The analyst emphasized this doesn't represent a fundamental shift in Marvell's competitive positioning, just some near-term cloudiness on one specific opportunity.

Not Everyone's Celebrating

The flip side of soaring memory prices and constrained supply is that companies focused on consumer markets are getting squeezed. Higher memory costs and shortages are pressuring handset demand and margins, leading Vinh to cut his estimates on Qualcomm Inc (QCOM). He also flagged Arm Holdings Plc (ARM) as facing headwinds given his expectation for a smartphone market contraction in 2026.

The broader warning from Vinh's research is that memory constraints and sharp price increases could create problems across PCs, smartphones, and automotive applications, even as AI and data center workloads remain the strongest and most resilient end markets. The semiconductor industry is clearly bifurcating into haves and have-nots, with hyperscaler-adjacent companies in the former category and consumer-focused players increasingly in the latter.

It's a supply crunch with clear winners and losers, and the dividing line is pretty simple: are you building the infrastructure for AI, or are you building everything else?

AMD Price Action: Advanced Micro Devices stock was up 6.09% at $220.34 at publication on Tuesday.