Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) had a rough Tuesday, with shares sliding as investors processed a recall affecting nearly 20,000 vehicles. The defect in question could increase the risk of a crash, which is precisely the kind of headline that makes shareholders nervous and regulators attentive.

A Leadership Shuffle at a Pivotal Moment

Amid the recall news, Rivian brought on Greg Revelle as Chief Customer Officer, a move designed to sharpen its go-to-market approach. It's the kind of hire that signals the company is thinking seriously about how it connects with buyers, which matters when you're trying to scale up production and keep customers happy.

The analyst community is sending mixed signals. Wolfe Research downgraded Rivian from peer perform to underperform while sticking with a $16 price target. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler moved its target from $14 to $20, suggesting there's genuine disagreement about where this stock is headed.

On the production front, Rivian's preliminary fourth-quarter results showed the company built nearly 11,000 vehicles and delivered around 10,000, hitting its own expectations. For the full year 2025, production totaled 42,284 vehicles with deliveries tracking closely, which indicates operational stability even as the recall creates complications.

The Technical Picture Gets Interesting

Rivian is currently trading 4.6% below its 20-day simple moving average, suggesting some short-term weakness. But zoom out and the picture changes: shares are sitting 21.4% above their 100-day moving average, pointing to longer-term strength. Over the past year, the stock has climbed 40.51% and remains closer to its 52-week highs than its lows.

The RSI stands at 51.44, which is about as neutral as it gets. The MACD is below its signal line, though, hinting at bearish pressure. Put it all together and you've got conflicting momentum signals that reflect the uncertainty swirling around the company.

Key technical levels to watch: resistance at $22.50 and support at $15.50.

What to Expect from Earnings

Investors are looking ahead to Rivian's next earnings report, scheduled for February 12. The expectations aren't exactly cheerful. Analysts are forecasting a loss of 84 cents per share, worse than the 46-cent loss from the same period last year. Revenue is expected to come in at $1.26 billion, down from $1.73 billion year-over-year.

The consensus rating on the stock is Hold, with an average price target of $16.15. Recent analyst moves tell the story of divided opinions:

• Wolfe Research: Downgraded to Underperform
• Piper Sandler: Neutral with a raised target of $20.00
• Wedbush: Outperform with a raised target of $25.00

Momentum Score Tells a Different Story

According to market data, Rivian scores 87.98 on momentum metrics, which is considered bullish and suggests the stock is outperforming the broader market. That's a positive signal, but it sits awkwardly next to the recall headlines and mixed analyst sentiment. The momentum is real, but so are the questions about near-term challenges.

ETF Exposure Creates Automatic Pressure

Rivian has significant exposure in several ETFs, which matters more than you might think. When these funds see inflows or outflows, they have to automatically buy or sell their holdings, including Rivian shares.

The biggest exposures include:

• First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN): 7.91% weight
• iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (IDRV): 4.40% weight
• VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG): 3.47% weight

Because Rivian carries such heavy weight in these funds, significant ETF flows can force buying or selling pressure on the stock regardless of company-specific news.

The Bottom Line

Rivian is navigating a complicated moment. The recall is a tangible problem that needs addressing, and the upcoming earnings report isn't expected to deliver good news on the bottom line. At the same time, the company's production remains stable, long-term momentum looks solid, and some analysts are getting more bullish even as others pull back.

Shares were down 1.98% at $18.77 at the time of publication on Tuesday.