Remember when JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned about an economic hurricane barreling toward us? That was two years ago. Now he's singing a different tune—well, sort of.

The Near-Term Gets Sunny

During Tuesday's earnings commentary, Dimon sounded almost cheerful about the immediate future. "If you asked me in the short run, call it six months and nine months and even a year, it's pretty positive," he said. The American consumer is holding up well, the labor market remains solid despite some cooling, and fiscal policy is giving things a boost. He even credited "the one big beautiful bill" for helping maintain current momentum.

So everything's fine, right? Not exactly. Dimon's short-term optimism comes with a hefty side of long-term anxiety, particularly about two big issues: America's fiscal situation and the increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape.

The Debt Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About

Dimon didn't mince words about the federal government's projected $2 trillion annual budget deficits. His basic argument: you can't borrow forever without consequences, even if those consequences haven't shown up yet.

"The deficits in the United States and around the world are quite large. We don't know when that's going to bite. It will bite eventually because you can't just keep on borrowing money endlessly," Dimon warned.

He predicts bond markets will eventually struggle to absorb all that debt, though pinning down when remains anyone's guess. "One day, the bond markets are gonna have a tough time. I don't know if it's six months or six years," he said.

Geopolitics Takes Top Billing

Here's where Dimon really diverged from typical economic commentary. He flat-out said global conflict now ranks higher than domestic economic data on his worry list. "I'm much more worried about the geopolitics than I am about the economy," he stated.

He emphasized the importance of America maintaining its global leadership role, warning that adversaries are actively working to dismantle the post-World War II multilateral order, including institutions like NATO and the European Union.

"Our country's adversaries want to go to a bilateral world. I'm not against 'America First,' but we cannot be 'America alone," Dimon said.

What It All Means

Dimon's message is essentially this: enjoy the calm weather while it lasts, because storm clouds are gathering on the horizon. The near-term looks decent, but mounting government debt and geopolitical instability present serious long-term challenges that won't resolve themselves.