If you've been waiting for Apple Inc. (AAPL) to release a foldable iPhone, you're not alone. The question is whether Apple has already missed the boat by letting competitors like Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNLF) dominate the category for years. According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the answer is probably not.

Fashionably Late or Strategically Patient?

Apple still hasn't launched a foldable iPhone, which makes it a latecomer to a market that Samsung has been cultivating since 2019. But Kuo, a TF International Securities analyst who's built a reputation tracking Apple's supply chain, told MarketDash that timing alone doesn't put Cupertino at a strategic disadvantage.

"Android foldables still haven't become mainstream in the premium segment," Kuo explained, suggesting the market remains early and under-penetrated.

In other words, Apple's late arrival doesn't mean it missed a critical window. The high-end foldable market hasn't really taken off yet, so there's still plenty of room for a well-executed product to make an impact.

Software Could Be the Real Differentiator

Here's where things get interesting. Kuo believes Apple's advantage won't come from hardware innovation alone. Instead, it's about execution, particularly in software and user interface design, two areas where current foldable devices continue to stumble.

"If Apple can truly nail the software and UI experience around foldables — an area where current Android foldables are still lacking — I believe most consumers would welcome a larger display," Kuo said, provided the device remains easy to carry.

That's the Apple playbook in a nutshell: show up late, but show up with something that actually works the way people expect it to. Think about the first iPhone, which wasn't the first smartphone, or the Apple Watch, which certainly wasn't the first smartwatch. What mattered was the polish.

Could Apple Revive the Entire Category?

Kuo sees implications beyond Apple's own product cycle. A successful foldable iPhone could push competitors to raise their game and help expand the category as a whole.

"If Apple delivers a great software and UI experience on a foldable iPhone," it could trigger a new upgrade cycle in the high-end segment, Kuo said, adding that it could offer the market a fresh source of growth.

Translation: Apple entering foldables could be the catalyst that finally makes them mainstream, not just a niche product for early adopters.

Samsung's Take: Foldables Are Almost There

Meanwhile, Samsung, Apple's longtime rival and the dominant player in foldables, struck an optimistic tone when asked about the market's trajectory.

In an emailed statement to MarketDash, the company said foldables are entering an "acceleration phase," citing TechInsights' projections that shipments could surpass 20 million units in 2025.

Samsung highlighted that newer devices are thinner, lighter and more durable, moving the category beyond novelty toward everyday usability. Consumers, Samsung added, are increasingly focused on what foldables enable, such as multitasking, large-screen productivity and AI-powered features, rather than the form factor itself.

As for Apple's potential entry, Samsung framed it as a natural evolution. New competitors, the company said, help validate and expand the category, even as Samsung plans to maintain leadership through continued innovation.

The Numbers Back Up the Optimism

In a December 2025 report, Counterpoint Research noted that global foldable smartphone shipments rose 14% year over year in the third quarter of 2025, hitting a record quarterly high. That momentum was driven largely by Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7 lineup.

Shipments for full-year 2025 are on pace for consistent mid-teens annual growth, with 2026 expected to see sharper acceleration as device hardware matures and Apple potentially boosts demand at the high end of the market.

Samsung's newly introduced Galaxy Z TriFold also serves as a strategic test case designed to strengthen the company's technological leadership before a wider commercial rollout in future product cycles.

Betting Markets Price In a Premium Launch

The speculation around a foldable iPhone has moved beyond analyst reports and supply-chain rumors. Traders are now actively betting on it. On Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 76% chance that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone before 2027, up from roughly 42% in mid-December.

On Kalshi, market data points to broad agreement that a foldable iPhone would sit at the top of Apple's pricing ladder. Traders are assigning about a 92% probability that the device would carry a starting price of at least $1,800, an 80% chance it would exceed $2,000, and roughly 65% odds that pricing would reach $2,200 or higher.

That pricing makes sense if you think about it. Apple's current iPhone Pro Max starts around $1,199. A foldable would need to justify a significant premium, and $1,800 to $2,200 seems like the sweet spot where early adopters might bite without feeling completely gouged.