Here's a question with real money riding on it: Will the Supreme Court back President Donald Trump's controversial tariff program? If you ask crypto prediction markets, the answer is probably not.

What The Smart Money Says

Polymarket odds currently sit at 28% that the Supreme Court overturns or vacates an earlier ruling that called Trump's tariff policy "unconstitutional." That's up from 22% a week ago, but nowhere near the confidence levels we saw back in September 2025. The market has attracted over $2.6 million in wagers on the Polygon (POL)-based platform, making it one of the most actively traded bets around.

Over on Kalshi, traders are slightly more optimistic, pricing in a 32% chance the court sides with Trump. The Supreme Court has an "Opinion Day" scheduled for Friday, and Kalshi bettors are giving 53% odds that we'll see a ruling before January 16.

Why This Actually Matters

Tariffs have dominated market conversations for the past year, and this decision could set the tone for early 2026. Trump himself warned this week that a ruling against the federal government could trigger massive economic consequences.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm nerves last week, stating the Treasury has enough cash on hand to cover potential tariff refunds if the court rules against the government.

The legal controversy stems from Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify imposing tariffs on trading partners since taking office in January 2025. A U.S. appeals court ruled last year that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers for what amounts to sweeping trade policy.

Economist Mark Zandi argues the labor market is already buckling under tariff pressure, and a Supreme Court decision could be the fastest route to getting job growth back on track.