If you're the type of investor who pays attention to momentum signals, two consumer staples stocks might be worth watching closely as we move through the first quarter. As of January 14, 2026, both Target Corp (TGT) and Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) are flashing technical warnings that suggest they may have gotten ahead of themselves.

The concern here revolves around the Relative Strength Index, a momentum indicator that compares how a stock performs on up days versus down days. Think of it as a temperature gauge for buying pressure. When the RSI climbs above 70, it typically means an asset has been overbought and could be due for a breather or even a pullback. Both of these stocks are now sitting in that elevated zone.

Target Corp (TGT)

Target has gained around 11% over the past month, pushing shares to close at $108.63 on Tuesday after rising 2.4%. That's a solid run for a retail giant, but it comes with some caution flags. The stock's RSI currently sits at 73, well into overbought territory.

What makes this particularly interesting is the disconnect between price action and analyst sentiment. On December 30, Wolfe Research analyst Spencer Hanus reiterated an Underperform rating on the stock with a price target of just $81. That's roughly 25% below where shares closed Tuesday. The stock has a 52-week high of $145.08, showing it still has room to climb if momentum continues, but the technical setup suggests caution may be warranted.

For context, Target's Edge Stock Ratings show a momentum score of 16.81 with a value score of 85.14, highlighting the tension between its recent price strength and underlying valuation metrics.

Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)

Estee Lauder presents a similar technical picture but with a different fundamental backdrop. The beauty products giant has surged approximately 14% over the past month, with shares climbing 2.1% to close at $115.37 on Tuesday. Its RSI reading of 72.1 puts it squarely in overbought territory alongside Target.

Unlike Target, though, Estee Lauder has been catching upgrades from analysts. On January 5, Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Strong Buy, setting a price target of $130. That same day, Wells Fargo analyst Christopher Carey maintained an Equal-Weight rating but raised his price target from $95 to $111. The company's 52-week high stands at $119.43, suggesting limited upside from current levels even with the bullish analyst calls.

The rapid appreciation has clearly pushed the stock into territory where momentum traders might start taking profits, regardless of what the fundamental story looks like. That's the thing about technical indicators like RSI—they don't care about earnings forecasts or analyst opinions. They simply measure whether buying pressure has gotten excessive in the short term.

For investors who use momentum as a key decision-making factor, these elevated RSI readings suggest it might be time to exercise some caution with both names, at least until the technical picture cools off a bit.