Talk about the January effect and most investors think of small-cap stocks bouncing back after year-end tax-loss selling. But here's the thing: gold has its own January effect, and it's been quietly outperforming for decades.
The Data Doesn't Lie
Research from the World Gold Council shows that since the early 1970s, gold has posted average January returns of 1.79%. That's nearly three times its long-term monthly average. The metal has delivered positive returns in close to 60% of all Januaries since 1971, and that figure jumps to nearly 70% when you look at results since 2000.
Compare that to equities, where the January effect has weakened considerably as markets have gotten more efficient and tax strategies have evolved. Gold's version appears far more durable, and there are concrete reasons why.
Unlike stocks, gold doesn't care about earnings beats or share buybacks. Its January strength lines up with real-world catalysts: portfolio rebalancing at year-start, fresh investment flows once December tax-loss selling wraps up, and physical restocking across Asia ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations.
The timing also coincides with seasonal softness in real yields and, frequently, a weaker US dollar — one of gold's most powerful tailwinds.
This year is playing out exactly as the pattern suggests. Gold has already rallied 7% so far in January, extending a scorching 65% surge from last year.
Understanding The Full Calendar
When gold does stumble in January, the usual suspect is dollar strength. Years like 2021 and 2022, when gold faltered early, coincided with sharp dollar rallies and rising real rates. Seasonality offers an edge, not a guarantee.
After January, things typically cool off. Gold tends to soften in late spring and early summer as trading volumes thin out and jewelry demand fades after peak buying seasons in India and China. This summer doldrums period, usually May through July, has historically been the metal's weakest stretch.
But that quiet period sets up the next move. As Asian buying resumes, Indian wedding season approaches, and investors reposition heading into year-end, gold often finds its footing again. Statistically, August through October ranks among the strongest periods for the metal, second only to January.
The Professionals Know This
Industry veterans have been building strategies around these patterns for years. Legendary mining executive Robert McEwen says investors who ignore these rhythms do so at their own peril.
"Investors should be aware that there is cyclicality and seasonality," McEwen told MarketDash. "You might want to buy during the tax-selling period at the end of the year, or you might want to buy in the summer. In the fall, precious metals usually do better."
Markets evolve, narratives shift, but gold's calendar keeps ticking. And January remains one of the few times each year when history consistently tips the scales in favor of bullion investors.
Price Watch: SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) is up 5.62% year-to-date.