Investor Chamath Palihapitiya has a bold prediction for copper prices: they're going parabolic. Speaking on a recent episode of the "All-In" podcast, Palihapitiya laid out why he thinks 2026 could be the year copper transforms from an industrial metal into one of the hottest commodities on the planet.
The thesis centers on two forces colliding at once—a supply crunch that's been building for years, and what Palihapitiya calls the "Trump Doctrine," a geopolitical shift toward unilateral national security and aggressive economic reshoring that's reshaping how America thinks about critical resources.
Tariffs and the Trump Doctrine
The Trump administration recently reclassified copper from an industrial metal to a critical pillar of national security. Using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the administration slapped a 50% tariff on imported copper, arguing that relying on foreign supply threatens U.S. interests.
That tariff effectively ring-fenced the domestic market, creating a supply squeeze as the U.S. scrambles to rebuild copper smelting and refining infrastructure that has atrophied over decades.
"In the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was … we need to have unilateral national security. If you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper," Palihapitiya explained.
Copper Is Everywhere
Palihapitiya emphasized that copper isn't just another commodity—it's embedded in virtually everything that matters to the modern economy. "Everywhere, everywhere, everywhere," he said.
Copper is "the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have. That material manifests in everything, from our data centers to our chips to our weapon systems," he added.
The demand drivers are stacking up fast:
- AI and Data Centers: Next-generation AI facilities require up to 50,000 metric tons of copper per site for power delivery and cooling systems.
- Defense Systems: Pentagon spending is ramping higher, and copper is indispensable for everything from munitions to advanced guidance systems.
- Energy Transition: The push for electrification and grid modernization continues to devour existing copper stockpiles.