Sometimes the best way to measure confidence is through betting markets. And if Wednesday's action on Kalshi is any indication, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has plenty of reason to feel good about his upcoming courtroom battle with OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman, and Microsoft Corp (MSFT).
Musk certainly thinks so. After the odds shifted in his favor, he declared on X: "I've lost a few battles over the years, but I've never lost a war."
The Courtroom Battle Takes Shape
A federal judge just set an April 27 trial date for Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, Altman, and Microsoft. The case centers on Musk's claim that OpenAI betrayed its founding principles. According to the lawsuit, the organization abandoned its nonprofit, public-benefit mission and misled him while morphing into a for-profit venture deeply intertwined with Microsoft.
The history here matters. Musk was an original co-founder of OpenAI back in 2015 and its biggest early supporter, pouring tens of millions of dollars into the project before walking away in 2018. OpenAI went on to launch ChatGPT in 2022, which became a cultural phenomenon. Meanwhile, Musk started his own AI company, xAI, to compete.
Microsoft entered the picture in 2019 with its first OpenAI investment. Since then, the tech giant has committed billions to the company and became its largest stakeholder following a major restructuring last year.
When Prediction Markets Meet Legal Drama
After news broke about the trial date, Musk responded to a post from Kalshi, asking what the odds looked like. The prediction market initially pegged his chances at winning at just 36%. But within hours, something shifted. Kalshi posted an update showing the odds had jumped to 41%.
That's when Musk shared the updated screenshot along with his "never lost a war" comment. As of this writing, Kalshi bettors are giving Musk approximately 64% odds of prevailing in court.