When Apple Inc. (AAPL) announced it would integrate Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL) Google Gemini models to power Siri, most observers saw a pragmatic partnership between tech giants. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest research team sees something else entirely: a company in serious trouble.

Why ARK Thinks This Is a Strategic Disaster

On the latest episode of ARK's "The Brainstorm" podcast, Chief Futurist Brett Winton didn't mince words about what Apple's Google dependence really signals. According to Winton, the iPhone maker is "floundering," and this partnership exposes Apple's inability to keep pace in the AI arms race.

"I think Apple's in huge, hairy trouble," Winton said bluntly. His argument hinges on a fascinating economic reversal that's happened between these two companies.

Here's the thing: Google has historically paid Apple an estimated $20 billion per year to remain the default search engine on iOS devices. That's been a beautiful arrangement for Apple—billions in essentially free money for doing nothing except maintaining the status quo. But now the tables have turned in a revealing way.

Under the new AI arrangement, Apple must pay Google approximately $1 billion annually for access to Gemini's intelligence capabilities. Do the math, and you get a striking picture: "They're net losing $21 billion a year on people trying to find information through their system," Winton noted. That's not exactly the kind of margin story Apple investors are used to hearing.

Beyond Money: A Culture Problem

The financial concerns are just the surface layer. Winton's critique cuts deeper into Apple's product development culture, arguing that the company has fundamentally "lost its ability to curate" and doesn't have the internal talent necessary to build a frontier foundation model.

Simply throwing money at Google won't fix Apple's underlying product problems, according to Winton. He pointed to the current "Apple Intelligence" features as evidence—features that are reportedly so problematic that users are actively turning them off.

Winton shared that even his own family members have disabled these features because they keep accidentally triggering unwanted actions. When your product is annoying enough that people prefer to disable it rather than use it, that's not a great sign for your AI strategy.

A Defensive Play Between Old Monopolies?

Nick Grous, ARK's Director of Research for Consumer Internet, offered a slightly different perspective on what's really happening here. He suggested the partnership might be less about Apple's weakness and more about two established tech monopolies circling the wagons against newer threats.

"This is the devil you know versus the devil you don't know," Grous explained. From this angle, Apple would rather maintain its longstanding relationship with Google—even on less favorable terms—than empower a potential disruptor like OpenAI to gain a foothold in the iOS ecosystem.

It's a duopoly preserving itself, essentially. But even Grous acknowledged that while this deal might prevent Apple from sliding into immediate irrelevance, it definitely signals that Apple is no longer leading innovation in its own right. They're following, not pioneering.

How Apple Stock Is Performing

The market hasn't exactly been kind to Apple (AAPL) lately. Shares have fallen 4.38% in 2026 so far, though zooming out shows a more mixed picture. The stock is up 24.61% over the past six months and has gained 11.44% over the past year.

According to market data, Apple maintains stronger price trends over medium and long-term timeframes but shows weakness in the short term. The company retains a solid quality ranking overall, suggesting investors still see fundamental strength even as AI strategy questions linger.

Whether ARK's dire warnings prove prescient or overstated remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the company that once prided itself on doing everything in-house and controlling the entire user experience is now outsourcing one of the most critical technologies of the decade. That's a meaningful shift, regardless of how you spin it.