When the Supreme Court stays quiet, Washington tends to read the tea leaves. And right now, the justices' prolonged silence on Trump's emergency tariff powers might actually be good news for the administration, according to JPMorgan analysts.

For the second time, the Supreme Court declined to rule Wednesday on whether Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs was legal. More notably, they didn't even bother setting a date for when they might decide. That kind of delay, JPMorgan's Amy Ho and Joyce Chang noted in a client memo, could mean the court is leaning toward Trump despite many legal experts predicting the opposite.

Here's the thing: the Supreme Court has a pattern. When it's dealing with blockbuster cases that could reshape policy, it tends to save those rulings for the end of its term in June. That gives the justices maximum time to deliberate and, perhaps, to build consensus on thorny issues. The fact that this case is getting the slow-roll treatment suggests it might fall into that category.

The Stakes Are Enormous

Trump made the financial stakes crystal clear on Monday, warning that a ruling against the government could force the U.S. to repay "many hundreds of billions of dollars" in tariffs already collected. Factor in related investments, he said, and the tab could hit the trillions. The underlying case itself involves potential refunds of $135 billion.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sweating it, though. He's expressed confidence that even if the Supreme Court rules against using emergency powers, the administration has backup options. Specifically, he pointed to various provisions in the 1962 Trade Act that grant the president broad authority over import duties.

Companies Line Up for Refunds

Meanwhile, businesses aren't waiting around. Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) filed a lawsuit in December seeking a complete refund of all duties it paid under the emergency powers tariff regime. The retail giant's move highlights a bigger question: if the Supreme Court ultimately declares these tariffs unlawful, will every business that paid them be entitled to get their money back?

Costco isn't alone. Since late October, companies including Revlon Consumer Products Corp. and Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corp. have filed similar lawsuits in U.S. trade court, all seeking refunds on duties they claim were improperly collected.

The longer the Supreme Court takes, the more uncertainty hangs over corporate balance sheets and government revenue projections. But if JPMorgan's reading is correct, that delay might ultimately work in the administration's favor.