If you want to understand where the smart money in mining is going, look south. Way south. Latin America has become the undisputed heavyweight champion of global mining M&A, capturing a staggering 74% of the roughly $30 billion in deals recorded during the first three quarters of this year, according to McKinsey's latest research.

That's not just a preference. That's a stampede.

Following the Money Underground

McKinsey published these findings in the Future Minerals Barometer Report, developed alongside the Future Minerals Forum, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global AI, and Globe Scan. The numbers tell a compelling story: mining deal values in Latin America have exploded by more than 200% since 2021.

Why the gold rush, or copper rush as it turns out? Latin America has what miners desperately need right now: geology, scale, and political stability that looks pretty good compared to the alternatives. Chile and Peru sit on some of the world's largest copper deposits. Argentina has rapidly become a lithium powerhouse through its expanding brine projects, helped along by a more business-friendly environment under Javier Milei's administration.

The capital flowing into hard assets reflects what many industry executives believe is an ongoing commodity supercycle. And when executives start using the word "supercycle," you know they're betting big.

Copper Wins, Lithium Loses

Here's where the story gets interesting. While lithium prices have cratered since the 2022 bubble popped, copper is writing a completely different narrative. Structural deficits driven by electrification, grid expansion, and the electric vehicle revolution are pushing mining companies to lock down long-life copper assets before shortages get painful.

You can already see the panic buying in action. BHP Group Limited (BHP) made a massive play for Anglo American Plc (AAUKF) that ultimately fell apart, highlighting just how scarce tier-one copper assets have become. Anglo American isn't sitting still, though. The company is working on a merger with Teck Resources Limited (TECK) that would create one of the world's largest copper producers if it goes through.

And then there's the rumor mill. Market chatter won't quit about a potential $200 billion merger between Glencore Plc (OTCPK: GLCNF) and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO). If that deal happens, it would dramatically concentrate control over copper-rich portfolios, many of them anchored in Latin America.

The African Exodus

The surge into Latin America becomes even more striking when you look at what's happening elsewhere. Africa has seen mining deal values collapse by nearly 80% since 2021 as investors run for the exits from jurisdictions they view as too risky. Barrick Mining Corporation (B) has faced serious challenges in Mali, and Orano lost assets in Niger, demonstrating how quickly political situations can deteriorate.

When you're choosing where to park billions of dollars for decades-long mining projects, stability matters. A lot.

A Different Kind of Deal Cycle

Research from law firm Dentons backs up McKinsey's findings and adds another layer. The past 18 months have marked a fundamental shift not just in transaction size but in frequency. Deals are happening faster and more often.

What makes this cycle different from previous M&A booms is motivation. Past waves were driven by rising commodity prices and the promise of quick profits. Today's deals are about strategic urgency: securing commodity supply for industrial needs, managing geopolitical risk, and positioning portfolios for the energy transition.

Mining companies aren't just buying assets because prices are high. They're buying them because they're terrified of not having access to the copper, lithium, and other critical minerals that will power the next economy.

For investors watching this play out, the iShares MSCI Global Select Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) has climbed 58.75% over the past year, reflecting the sector's momentum and investor enthusiasm for mining exposure.

Latin America's moment in the mining spotlight looks far from over. As long as the world needs copper for electric grids and EVs, and as long as other regions struggle with political instability, expect capital to keep flowing toward Chilean copper mines and Argentine lithium flats. The geography of global mining is being redrawn, and Latin America is holding the pen.