Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) shares slipped Thursday after KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock downgraded the space company from Overweight to Sector Weight. It's not a bearish call exactly—more like a "mission accomplished" moment where the good news everyone was hoping for has already arrived and been baked into the stock price.
Success Is Priced In
The downgrade reflects KeyBanc's view that many of Rocket Lab's aggressive, multi-year growth catalysts have been realized and are now broadly recognized in the current valuation. Translation: The stock has had a fantastic run, and the market already knows why.
KeyBanc still considers Rocket Lab one of the highest-quality companies in the space sector, but believes the risk-reward profile looks balanced in the near to medium term. The firm's financial estimates for the company remain unchanged.
Leshock pointed to several major milestones achieved over the past 6 to 12 months. These include an $816 million contract award for SDA Tranche 3 in December 2025, the opening of the LC-3 launch pad at Wallops Island in August 2025, consistent testing and production progress for the Archimedes engine, and a late-2025 executive order supporting U.S. space dominance.
KeyBanc also noted broader developments lifting the space sector, including increased attention following SpaceX's announced intentions to pursue an IPO and the appointment of Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator in December 2025.
Despite the downgrade, the firm said it could become more constructive on Rocket Lab shares with improved visibility into the timing of Neutron's first launch, additional large contract awards, stronger-than-expected space systems growth, or further clarity around long-term services opportunities.
Technical Indicators Show Strength and Caution
Rocket Lab is currently trading 18.8% above its 20-day simple moving average and 57.5% above its 100-day SMA, indicating strong short-term and long-term bullish trends. Over the past 12 months, shares have skyrocketed by 253.72%, and they're positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows.
The RSI is at 73.57, indicating the stock is in overbought territory, which may suggest a potential pullback if momentum wanes. Meanwhile, the MACD is above its signal line, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
The combination of an overbought RSI and a bullish MACD suggests that while the stock is currently strong, traders should remain cautious of potential corrections.